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May 9, Topic: Following the s post-reunification period, during which Germany ran a slightly negative current account, and since the beginning of monetary union, the current account has grown substantially. The numbers given below start with monetary unification, but also reflect the gradual phasing out of the reunification effects.

With persistent large current account surpluses, Germany became a large creditor: National accounting allows the current account to be broken down into the difference between the saving and the investment of all domestic sectors of the economy i. Meanwhile, the financial sector itself has turned to a slight borrowing position. Instead, the dynamics of the current account increase are a reflection of a profound change in the net lending behaviour of companies located in Germany.


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What, then, is behind this changing behaviour in corporate net lending? National account data show that the 5 percentage point shift in the corporate net lending position is due to both an increase in gross savings around 3 percentage points of GDP and a decrease in corporate investments around 2 percentage points of GDP. The increase in gross savings up to can be traced back to a fall in the compensation of employees Ruscher and Wolff The gross operating surplus increased up to , but then reversed to some extent.

Overall, the German corporate sector has been deleveraging for more than 15 years. To better understand these macroeconomically significant movements, the figures below put key German developments into perspective with three international peers: France, Italy, and the US. Investment has been disappointing in both the manufacturing and the services sector Figure 2. It is notable that throughout the monetary union period, Germany has been investing less in manufacturing than both Italy and France. In addition to looking at the sectoral decomposition of investment, one can also study the type of investment — i.

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Intangible investment in particular has been weak in Germany compared to France and the US, but even compared to Italy. Meanwhile, German employment has performed extremely well compared to its peers Figure 4. In the corporate sector, savings have gone up with initially falling labour compensation, while corporate investment has been falling and weak throughout. Three major conclusions can be drawn from this empirical picture. This overall picture calls for a detailed and careful policy analysis, which the incoming German government should undertake.


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    • A few suggestions can be made. Beyond the need to drive up public investment see Fratzscher et al. Increasing the currently low intangible capital stock should be a key priority. The data presented here suggest that the political narrative that Germany has missed the Digital Revolution has some truth to it. But regular investment is also weak, as the data on manufacturing investment have shown.

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    To improve investment conditions in Germany, the country could revisit the regulatory toolbox — the lack of any significant supply-side reforms for at least eight years is notable in this regard. Moreover, at a time when the US has just passed a major corporate tax reform, which also increases tax incentives for investment, it is absolutely crucial for Germany to focus on improving tax conditions for investment. In doing so, the capital stock is likely to increase, allowing Germany to catch up to its peers. A higher capital-to-labour ratio should also increase wage growth further.

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