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We characterize this trend by using two CO 2 emissions indicators: 1 total emissions, excluding LUCF; and 2 emissions from electricity and heat production, the most CO 2 -intensive economic sector — see Figure 11—3 International Energy Agency, a. EPI includes both indicators to measure progress on CO 2 mitigation both generally and within this important sector.


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Figure 11—3. Global carbon dioxide emissions by sector. Note: Emissions in gigatons of carbon dioxide. Source: International Energy Agency, , p. GHG emissions from transportation are an important contributor to climate change. Capturing these impacts in a useful, policy-relevant metric is challenging. Determining what to measure poses difficulties, while defining and gathering the appropriate data presents another issue.

Selecting an appropriate indicator is difficult due to conflicting ideas of what constitutes a carbon-efficient transport network. For the transportation sector, GDP must be replaced by an appropriate statistic. Two commonly used statistics are passenger-kilometer traveled and tonne-kilometer traveled. A passenger- or tonne-kilometer is a single passenger or ton of cargo moved one kilometer.

However, these metrics do not reward certain approaches to decreasing the climate impacts of transport. Developing the data needed to implement the metrics described above poses another set of difficult choices. The simplest approach would be to measure the total emissions from the transport sector and total passenger- and tonne- kilometers travelled, and then divide them to determine the overall GHG emissions per passenger- or tonne-kilometer.

The World Bank uses data from the IEA to provide estimates of the fraction of total CO 2 emissions from transportation by country World Bank, , and the International Transport Forum provides some estimates of passenger- and tonne-kilometers travelled by country ITF, , pp.

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However, these datasets are incomplete, with the latter containing records for less than 60 countries. They also do not provide a method to allocate emissions to passenger versus freight transport, nor do they allow for more detailed analysis regarding the causes of transportation efficiency differences across countries.

More nuanced approaches address some of the limitations presented by the technique described above. CE Delft focuses on providing emissions factors, which estimate GHG and air pollution emissions per kilometer traveled for various types of vehicles that transport freight Otten et al. The authors acknowledge that calculating the actual quantity of fuel burned would be more accurate than using emission factors Otten et al. While the scope of data collection required to fully implement these approaches is potentially infeasible on an international scale, the CE Delft and UK government methodologies reflect the complexity of this task and pose questions that must be addressed.

These examples illustrate significant efforts to develop ways to measure and compare the climate impacts of transportation. To develop metrics that allow useful comparisons between countries, future research will need to build from existing work in three main ways. Second, the World Bank dataset excludes emissions from international aviation and maritime shipping World Bank, Methods to measure and assign emissions from these sources must be developed to fully measure the climate impacts of travel.

Global efforts to collect data and make appropriate estimates are the third and most significant piece required to develop a usable transportation carbon intensity measure for the EPI. While insufficient for inclusion in the EPI, data published by the World Bank and International Transport Forum and documentation provided by CE Delft and the UK government provide a blueprint for the work needed to develop transportation indicators. Energy efficiency improvements in China are driving substantive reductions in global energy consumption statistics.

China has decreased its total emissions and emissions intensity — see Figure 11—4. Figure 11—4. Trend in carbon emissions and carbon emissions intensity. Note: Carbon intensity is expressed in million tons of carbon dioxide per gross domestic product. Under the program, enterprises in nine industrial sectors iron and steel, petroleum and petrochemicals, chemicals, electric power generation, non-ferrous metals, coal mining, construction materials, textiles, and pulp and paper were instructed to reduce energy consumption by million tonnes of coal equivalent Mtce from their expected consumption in over a four-year period National Development and Reform Commission, According to IEA estimates, China must reduce its energy intensity by 4.

The government has outlined a cap for national coal consumption. Transitioning the Chinese economy away from carbon-intensive fuels and practices will not be easy, but thus far, China has been a model for other transitioning economies. Forests play an important role in climate change, but until recently scientists have been unsure whether forests are net sources or sinks of carbon. The disagreement stems from two different modeling approaches.

Top-down satellite-based models show forests as important carbon sinks.

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In contrast, bottom-up ecological studies find forests to be a net carbon emitter. A recent paper from the Woods Hole Research Center clarifies the role of forests in the global carbon cycle by matching satellite-based imagery with ecological field data. The study finds forests to be a net carbon emitter, with most emissions caused by the degradation and disturbance of forest land Baccini et al. Baccini et al. The latter was not considered in previous top-down models, which apply remote sensing to track changes in forest cover over large geographic areas due to land use change.

Many top-down models use net change in forest area as a proxy for carbon storage, and have largely ignored or underestimated losses or gains in carbon storage due to changes in forest density. Bottom-up direct sampling is better suited for measuring changes in forest density due to degradation and disturbance. Activities that degrade or distribute forests include selective logging, which reduces biomass but does not transform the forest into another land use.

Carbon losses from degradation and disturbance of forests are highly important to the role of forests in the global carbon cycle. These losses are missing from previous top-down models, and their inclusion shows forests as a net source of atmospheric carbon. When managing forest land for climate change mitigation, policymakers should consider carefully the impacts of forest management and avoid forest degradation when possible.

Methane is the second-most abundant GHG in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide. While methane has a short atmospheric lifespan — estimates typically range between 9 and 12 years — it is 34 times more effective at trapping heat than CO 2 Christensen et al. Most anthropogenic emissions come from agriculture, fossil fuel extraction and use, waste, and off-gassing from landfills Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Emissions from livestock, such as ruminant animals, produce an estimated 7. Methane emissions from rice paddies and agriculture are also large contributors to global emissions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Methane is also emitted from the natural environment.

Wetlands are the largest single natural emissions source, contributing Teragrams Tg of methane to the global budget annually Ciais et al. Rapid warming and future fossil fuel extraction of methane hydrates could release large quantities of methane from deposits in marine and permafrost sediments Harden et al. The IPCC estimates that between two and eight million Tg of methane are stored in ocean hydrates and less than , Tg are stored in permafrost hydrates Ciais et al.

However, scientific understanding of how climate change may impact the release of these stocks into the atmosphere is not widely understood Ciais et al. Revised bottom-up estimates of global livestock methane emissions, particularly from cattle, account for a sizable portion of the significant increase in observed methane emissions over the past decade Nisbet et al.

As incomes rise in developing nations, so will the demand for animal products. Changing diets increase the need to address emissions from raising animals for food.

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Large livestock, such as cattle, are substantial contributors to global methane emissions Wolf et al. While the results of introducing Asparagopsis taxiformis into cattle feed are promising, it cannot yet be considered a quick fix for reducing methane emissions. Production could prove to be a bottleneck for rapid implementation. There are also environmental risks associated with adding seaweed to animal feed. Seaweed contains high concentrations of bromoform Gribble, Nitrous oxide N 2 O is a potent, long-lived greenhouse gas. Recent estimates place global emissions at 6. UNEP estimates that moderate mitigation, when compared to a business-as-usual scenario, could reduce N 2 O emissions by 1.

United Nations Environment Programme, Countries can reduce emissions and meet their climate goals by expanding efforts to address agriculture and other high-emitting sectors. Improving nitrogen use efficiency and reducing meat consumption, food waste, and food loss are all viable mitigation options United Nations Environment Programme, As with many environmental challenges, developing nations are often constrained in their ability to effectively address problems.

Barriers to N 2 O reduction efforts include the high capital costs of abatement technologies, lack of training and technology transfer on abatement techniques, and knowledge gaps in site-specific or situational mitigation options United Nations Environment Programme, Potential mitigation policies to address these barriers could involve removing subsidies that encourage misuse or overuse of nitrogen fertilizer, putting a price on nitrogen, increasing support for good management practice for farmers, and setting clear targets for emission reductions United Nations Environment Programme, Permafrost soils in the arctic are large nitrogen reservoirs.


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Historically, arctic peatlands have not been a significant source of N 2 O, but a warming planet may change that. Land areas in the Arctic are expected to warm 5. Continued warming will thaw permafrost soils and produce N 2 O Butterbach-Bahl et al. One conservative estimate places the stored mass of nitrogen in deep permafrost soil at 67 billion tons, nearly times the global annual nitrogen load added to soil as fertilizer Bouwman et al. Rapid release of N 2 O and, other warming gasses stored in permafrost soils, have the potential to further drive atmospheric warming, weakening or reversing the impacts of successful mitigation policy.

Photograph 11—1. Thawing permafrost also has implications for local environments.

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Research from the Northwest Territories Geological Survey indicates that permafrost collapse causes landslides into rivers that can impact downstream watersheds Kokelj et al. Another study found that thawing produced increased suspended sediment concentrations in Arctic streams and waterways Kokelj et al. Accelerated thawing also places additional stress on biological communities in lakes, threatening aquatic ecosystems Thienpont et al. Limited knowledge of complicated climate feedback loops lowers the degree of confidence with which scientists can predict the volume, timing, and likelihood of N 2 O release from permafrost peatlands Ciais et al.

However, policymakers should be aware of the potential for thawing-induced N 2 O emissions from Arctic peatlands, and how the emissions may factor into the global N 2 O budget in the future. Black carbon was excluded from the Kyoto Protocol due to uncertainties about its net impact on global climate change Levitsky, , but recent studies show black carbon to be a potent, heat-trapping pollutant Bond et al.

Black carbon also contributes substantially to poor air quality. Efforts to address black carbon emissions thus have the potential to deliver co-benefits for climate, air quality, and public health Wang et al. Black carbon influences the climate system in two ways: first, by altering radiative properties in the atmosphere, and second, by increasing surface albedo reflectivity.

In the atmosphere, black carbon particles trap heat and contribute to warming Bond et al. Like all aerosols, black carbon has a short residence time. Mitigating black carbon emissions could thus lower the amount of soot deposited on climate-sensitive regions, like the Arctic.

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Black carbon emissions have strong local impacts. Atmospheric transport consolidates black carbon in regional hotspots, where they influence local climate systems Levitsky, Atmospheric heating and dimming from black carbon contributed to a year decline in precipitation patterns in Africa, South Asia, and Northern China Bond et al. Global emissions have increased from 5. Overall emissions intensity, measured as the amount of black carbon emitted per unit of energy, however, has declined substantially since , largely due to efficiency and technology improvements in the energy and transport sectors Wang et al.

Black carbon emissions intensities have declined without concerted policy incentives for abatement.