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Deep and Genuine Repentance Must Take Place. If this does not occur, restoration is elusive. Repentance is a change of mind that leads to a.
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For example, in justifying their many monetary interventions, Federal Reserve board members these days routinely say that they are merely following the Taylor Rule. Never mind that the father of the Taylor Rule says that they really are doing no such thing. You might think that this would be a tad embarrassing to the imitators of the Taylor Rule, but the very fact of their imitation is in fact a sign of their admiration.

And it underscores, I think, that among monetary economists, John is, if I may use the phrase in polite company these days, the gold standard. I also want to say a few words about John as a monetary practitioner, because this is not as well known as his writing, but I think it reflects the fact that he is not merely a denizen of the ivory tower. From to , John served as undersecretary for international affairs of the Treasury Department.

And many of you probably do not remember the great Latin American currency crisis of and ' You don't remember that crisis because it did not happen. Argentina defaulted on its debt, the contagion quickly spread to Uruguay, and then something wonderful happened. There was no crisis. There was no other contagion.


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That's because in his treasury role, John Taylor rode to the rescue with a currency support package that backstopped the Uruguay peso and stopped what might have been one more in a very long line before and since of monetary crises that spread far and wide, and roiled markets far and wide. John said, "No, that probably isn't a good idea. They stopped the contagion and there was no crisis. You may also not recall the great Iraq currency crisis of After the fall of Saddam Hussein, there was no hyperinflation, no food riots, no hoarding of currency. That's because John Taylor planned and executed one of the most successful currency reforms since Ludwig Erhard introduced the Deutschmark in post-war Germany.

First John arranged to have Saddam's dollar assets in American banks brought to Baghdad immediately after the invasion to be distributed to the population. That had a calming effect and avoided a collapse of the financial system. Then a few months later, stage two created a new Iraqi dinar that was printed at seven different locations around the world and brought to bear on Baghdad.

This had a great success and became the underpinning for Iraq's financial stability. I don't know about you, but I would like to start grading Treasury officials less on crisis management, and more on crisis avoidance.

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I'm rather tired of listening to government officials praise themselves for allegedly saving us from crises they either ignored or failed to prevent or in some cases helped to cause. I think we could call that the other Taylor Rule. For all that John has accomplished in academia and in government, however, I think his most significant work has come in the wake of the financial crisis since And that has been the utterly vital role, I think, that he's played as a public intellectual in trying to tell us what happened, what went wrong, what were really the causes of the crisis, what policy mistakes we've made, and what we can do about it.

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I think one of the lessons of the last few years is that we realize now that there are no permanent policy victories in American politics, particularly on economic policy. Some of the victories that some of us had thought we'd won in the 70s and 80s, we now learn those weren't permanent and we have to relearn those policy lessons. So I think now more than ever, we need men—accomplished men like John Taylor—to help educate us about what works and what doesn't, and how we can get back to the prosperity that we seem to have lost.

I'll finish with a story about John as a teacher. A few years ago, he was teaching a very large basic economics course at Stanford.


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    • I guess that's probably about people. And he showed them a chart that displayed—a common chart that you'll see nowadays—that showed the exploding U. But the chart didn't seem to register with the students. So John told them that he would bring in a guest lecturer at a future class to explain it better to them. And at a future class, John brought in his granddaughter. She was not yet a year old. Holding her in his arms, John explained to the students—Stanford students, brilliant men and women—that this was indeed the guest lecturer.

    So he put the chart up again, and his granddaughter looked at the chart, and then appeared to be talking with John. Then the two of them turned to the class, and John told them that his granddaughter had said, "Fix it. So I think we are all very, very fortunate to have John Taylor available at this crucial time in economic history to help us fix it. Ladies and gentlemen, John Taylor.

    It's a beautiful paper, showing why economic prosperity is best achieved by letting individuals interact together using their unique knowledge sets which people at the top do not have.

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    It is the same paper that Matt Ridley focused on in last year's Hayek Lecture. I recall first reading this paper as a college student, but I have re-read it many times, and I still recommend it. But today I want to focus on another part of Hayek's work, a part that I came to appreciate much later, after years of research and experience with economic policy. This is his work on policy rules, the rule of law, and the importance of predictability—topics he discusses in The Road to Serfdom and in much more detail in The Constitution of Liberty.

    I have been interested in policy rules or strategies as a way to make policy for as long as I have been doing economics. I was drawn to this way of thinking because of the kind of dynamic economics I was first taught in college, originally by a young assistant professor E. Philip Howrey. As I will show in this lecture, Hayek's work on these topics goes well beyond economics into fundamental issues of freedom and the role of government.

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    And that is why we need to keep reading Hayek. Let me begin with First Principles. It is becoming increasingly apparent that America's economic future is uncertain. The economy is growing slowly. Unemployment is high, especially long-term unemployment. We have just gone through a painful financial crisis and a deep recession, the recovery from which is nearly nonexistent. The federal debt is exploding and threatening our children and grandchildren. In my view the reason for this predicament is very clear: We have deviated from the First Principles of economic freedom upon which America was founded.

    As Hayek would insist, we need to be careful about what we mean by economic freedom. The basic idea is that people are free to decide what to produce, what to buy, where to work, how to help others.


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    The American vision was that they would make these choices within a predictable policy framework, based on the rule of law, with strong incentives, emanating from a reliance on markets, and a clearly-limited role for government. Over the years America has adhered to these principles more than most countries. That's why so many people came to America, and why it has prospered as a nation.

    But there have been ebbs and flows in the degree to which the principles have been followed, and we can learn from these ebbs and flows. Leading up to the Great Depression, policy deviated from a reasonably predictable policy framework, as the Fed cut money growth sharply. Then the federal government raised tax rates and tariffs, and went well beyond sensible limits on government and the rule of law in the National Industrial Recovery Act which overrode many market principles.

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    There's even more evidence in the past half century. From the mids through the s, policy deviated from the principles. There were unpredictable short-term stimulus packages, discretionary go-stop monetary policies, and wage and price controls—the anathema of a market system based on incentives. The results were terrible: double digit unemployment, double digit inflation, and a marked slowdown in economic growth. Hayek's view about such short-termism was always clear. He wrote "I cannot help regard the increasing concentration on short-run effects…not only as a serious and dangerous intellectual error, but as a betrayal of the main duty of the economist and a grave menace to our civilization.