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Table of contents

The path for the rest of the world seems clear. Openness and restructuring. Restructuring and openness. Individually, nations begin adopting the formula of deregulating, privatizing, opening up to foreign investment, and cutting government deficits. Collectively, they sign onto international agreements that accelerate the process of global integration—and fuel the long boom. Two milestones come in the Information Technology Agreement, in which almost all countries trading in IT agree to abolish tariffs by , and the Global Telecommunications Accord, in which almost 70 leading nations agree to rapidly deregulate their domestic telecom markets.

These two developments quickly spread the two key technologies of the era: computers and telecommunications. Everyone benefits, particularly the underdeveloped economies, which take advantage of the leapfrog effect, adopting the newest, cheapest, best technology rather than settling for obsolete junk. IT creates a remarkable dynamic that brings increasing power, performance, and quality to each new generation of the technology—plus big drops in price.

Also, wireless telecommunications allow countries to avoid the huge effort and expense of building wired infrastructures through crowded cities and diffuse countrysides. This all bodes well for the world economy. Through most of the s, all the s, and the early s, the real growth rate in the world's gross domestic product averages 3 percent. By , the rate tops a robust 4 percent. By , it hits an astounding 6 percent.

Continued growth at this rate will double the size of the world economy in just 12 years, doubling it twice in just 25 years. This level of growth surpasses the rates of the last global economic boom, the years following World War II, which averaged 4. And this growth comes off a much broader economic base, making it more remarkable still. Unlike the last time, almost every region of the planet, even in the undeveloped world, participates in the bonanza. Latin America takes off. These countries, after experiencing the nightmare of debt in the s, do much to vigorously restructure their economies in the s.

Chile and Argentina are particularly innovative, and Brazil builds on an extensive indigenous high tech sector. But the real boost from onward comes from capitalizing on Latin America's strategic location on the booming Pacific Rim and on its proximity to the United States. The region becomes increasingly drawn into the booming US economy. By about , an All American Free Trade Agreement is signed—integrating the entire hemisphere into one unified market.

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The Middle East, meanwhile, enters crisis. Two main factors drive the region's problems. One, the fundamentalist Muslim mind-set is particularly unsuited to the fluid demands of the digital age. The new economy rewards experimentation, constant innovation, and challenging the status quo—these attributes, however, are shunned in many countries throughout the Middle East.

Many actually get more traditional in response to the furious pace of change. The other factor driving the crisis is outside their control. The advent of hydrogen power clearly undermines the centrality of oil in the world economy. By , with the auto industry in a mad dash to convert, the bottom falls out of the oil market. The Middle Eastern crisis comes to a head. Some of the old monarchies and religious regimes begin to topple. An even more disturbing crisis hits Africa. While some parts of the continent, such as greater South Africa, are doing fine, central Africa devolves into a swirl of brutal ethnic conflict, desperate poverty, widespread famine and disease.

In the introduction of biological weapons in an ethnic conflict, combined with the outbreak of a terrifying new natural disease, brings the death count to unimagined levels: an estimated 5 million people die in the space of six months—this on top of a cumulative death toll of roughly million who perished prematurely over the previous two decades. The contrast between such destitution and the spreading prosperity elsewhere finally prods the planet into collective action. Every nation, the world comes to understand, ultimately can only benefit from a thriving Africa, which will occupy economic niches that other nations are outgrowing.

It makes as much practical as humanitarian sense. The regeneration of Africa becomes a prime global agenda item for the next quarter of the century. Riding the wave of the booming economy brings other major social and political repercussions. Fundamental shifts in technology and the means of production inevitably change the way the economy operates. And when the economy changes, it doesn't take long for the rest of society to adapt to the new realities. The classic example is the transformation of agricultural society into industrial society. A new tool—the motor—led to a new economic model—capitalism—that brought great social upheaval—urbanization and the creation of an affluent class—and ultimately profound political change—liberal democracy.

While that's a crude summation of a complex historical transition, the same dynamic largely holds true in our shift to a networked economy based on digital technologies.

Solidarity and the fall of communism in Poland

There's also a commonsense explanation. When an economy booms, money courses through society, people get rich quick, and almost everybody sees an opportunity to improve their station in life. Optimism abounds. Think back to that period following World War II. A booming economy buoyed a bold, optimistic view of the world: we can put a man on the Moon, we can build a Great Society, a racially integrated world. In our era, we can expect the same.

Predictions of the dissolution of the Soviet Union - Wikipedia

By about , the United States economy is doing so well that the tax coffers begin to swell. This not only solves the deficit problem but gives the government ample resources to embark on new initiatives. No longer forced to nitpick over which government programs to cut, political leaders emerge with new initiatives to help solve seemingly intractable social problems, like drug addiction.

No one talks about reverting to big government, but there's plenty of room for innovative approaches to applying the pooled resources of the entire society to benefit the public at large. And the government, in good conscience, can finally afford tax cuts. A spirit of generosity returns. The vast majority of Americans who see their prospects rising with the expanding economy are genuinely sympathetic to the plight of those left behind.

Xi’s New Approach

This kinder, gentler humanitarian urge is bolstered by a cold, hard fact. The bigger the network, the better. The more people in the network, the better for everyone. Wiring half a town is only marginally useful. If the entire town has phones, then the system really sings. Every person, every business, every organization directly benefits from a system in which you can pick up a phone and reach every individual rather than just a scattered few.

That same principle true holds for the new networked computer technologies.

7. Between Idealism and Realism: Reflections on the Political Landscape of Postcommunism

It pays to get everyone tied into the new information grid. By , this mentality sinks in. Almost everyone understands we're deep into a transition to a networked economy, a networked society. It makes sense to get everyone on board.