Fueling the Future Force: Preparing the Department of Defense for a Post-Petroleum Era

Fueling the Future Force: Preparing the Department of Defense for a Post- Petroleum Era. Christine Parthemore and John Nagl. Published by: Center for a New.
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Armed Forces and other government agencies, the key authors -- Christine Pathemore and John Nagl -- conclude that the military has three decades to dramatically reduce its dependence on petroleum, the fuel that powers 77 percent of the America's fighting machinery. Why the urgency and why get off of oil? The map at the end of the commentary shows why.

It has to do with who has the oil and how fast they are extracting it. The lighter the shades of blue, the shorter the time span until the process of extraction becomes economically unfeasible. Neighboring Canada, our largest external supplier, 28 years. This year timeframe reflects market indicators pointing toward both higher demand for petroleum and increasing international competition to acquire it.

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Moreover, the geology and economics of producing petroleum will ensure that the market grows tight long before petroleum reserves are depleted. Ensuring that DOD can operate on non-petroleum fuels 30 years from today is a conservative hedge against prevailing economic, political and environmental trends, conditions and constraints. Beyond Jet8 Fueling Future Force recommends that the DoD shift from petroleum-based fuels because of its risks to national security. One option is biofuels derived from renewable sources. It flew without incident last March 25th off the coast of Florida.

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By , the service wants to have all of the aircraft in its inventory certified for alternative fuels. In addition to the strategic need to shift away from petroleum, there is the economic one: Energy Information Administration projects that world energy demand will grow from its level of Armed Forces on page For the Navy, development of a Green Strike Group made up of nuclear vessels and ships powered by biofuel hybrid-electric propulsions systems; and be ready to deploy by The Army will "reduce the amounts of power and fuel consumed… at home and in theatre.

In addition to these steps, CNAS offers 12 additional measures that need to be taken, the last being "Plan for the Worst. DOD, including the war colleges, combatant commands and OSD, has already conducted war games and scenario exercises that include fuel shortages, extended blackouts and other contingencies.

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DOD must continue to think through these kinds of scenarios, compile lessons learned from them and apply them to its energy calculations. Those worse-case scenarios include petroleum "off-ramps" leading to dead-ends technologically, economically, and politically. Maybe the most important lesson to be gleaned is that if the Department of Defense is concerned about the future of oil, then maybe the rest of us should be too?

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