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Feb 6, - The final form is the truly horrific septicemic plague, in which the infection spreads to "If it is true, as I believe, that human ectoparasites"—fleas and "You have to remember, always remember that plague, although we are.
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Plague caused by Yersinia pestis can also manifest as pneumonic plague, in which the infection is focused in the lungs, and can be spread by coughing airborne droplets. The final form is the truly horrific septicemic plague, in which the infection spreads to the blood, turning body tissue a frostbite black. Our world is filled with so many plagues—bubonic, sure, but also locusts, the flu, climate change, Starbucks, Twitter—but few have had as severe an impact as the plague.

According to University of Oslo biologist Nils Christian Stenseth no other documented disease outbreak comes close to the lethality of the Black Death, which killed off 50 percent of Europe's population at the time—hundreds of millions of people.

Two people diagnosed with pneumonic plague in China

The Plague of Justinian killed tens of millions of people around the rim of the Mediterranean Sea nearly a millennium before the Black Death, and a third pandemic spread globally from China's Yunnan province at the turn of the 20th century. Historical records document numerous smaller plague outbreaks between these larger pandemics. And that same bubonic plague has been chronic up through today. Until recently, there was debate over whether the contemporary plague caused by Yersinia pestis was even the same disease as the plagues of the past.

The evidence was long limited to similarity in description, from admittedly constrained records. However, researchers, including Stenseth's team, have been able to use genetic testing to prove that the plague is the plague. In the U. These areas tend to be more rural than the plague-free East, but Markman says this is probably coincidental.

While the exact causality of the disease's geographic concentrations is not yet settled science, Markman points to average soil moisture and the presence of burrowing rodents like prairie dogs as potential factors. Stenseth, too, believes the answer may lie in the dirt, a factor that might be related to the evidence that climate change is increasing outbreaks in some areas, and decreasing them in others.

These colonies are usually quite humid.

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But I don't know, and the scientific field doesn't know. Beyond the handful of annual infections that occur in the Western U. Globally, thousands die of it each year. For Yersinia to do this, it would have to become established in a population of rodents that are resistant to the disease.

As a result, Europe, along with Australia and Antarctica, remain the only regions of the world where bubonic plague has never settled.

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So, once again, the Black Death behaved in a way plague simply cannot. Nor is bubonic plague contagious enough to have been the Black Death. The Black Death killed at least a third of the population wherever it hit, sometimes more. But when bubonic plague hit India in the 19th century, fewer than 2 per cent of the people in affected towns died.

The most obvious problem with the plague theory is that, unlike bubonic plague, the Black Death obviously spread directly from person to person. People in the thick of the epidemic recognised this, and Scott and Duncan proved they were right by tracing the anatomy of outbreaks, person by person, using English burial records from the 16th century.

These records, which detail all deaths from the pestilence by order of Elizabeth I, clearly show the disease spreading from one person to their neighbours and relatives, separated by an incubation period of 20 to 30 days.

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The details tally perfectly with a disease that kills about 37 days after infection. Then for 20 to 22 days, you were. You only knew you were infected when you fell ill, for the final five days or less-but by then you had been infecting people unknowingly for weeks.

Europeans at the time clearly knew the disease had a long, infectious incubation period, because they rapidly imposed measures to isolate potential carriers. For example, they stopped anyone arriving on a ship from disembarking for 40 days, or quarantina in Italian — -the origin of the word quarantine. Epidemiologists know that diseases with a long incubation time create outbreaks that last months. From 14th-century ecclesiastical records, Scott and Duncan estimate that outbreaks of the Black Death in a given town or diocese typically lasted 8 or 9 months.

That, plus the delay between waves of cases, is the fingerprint of the disease across Europe over seasons and centuries, they say. The pair found exactly the same pattern in 17th-century outbreaks in Florence, Milan and a dozen towns across England, including London, Colchester, Newcastle, Manchester and Eyam in Derbyshire. In , the inhabitants of Eyam selflessly confined themselves to the village. A third of them died, but they kept the disease from reaching other towns. This would not have worked if the carriers were rats. Despite the force of their argument, Scott and Duncan have yet to convince their colleagues.

None of the experts that New Scientist spoke to had read their book, and a summary of its ideas provoked reactions that range from polite interest to outright dismissal.


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Human fleas can keep it in their guts for a few weeks, leading to a delay in spread. But this would be unlikely to have happened the same way every time. Moreover, people with enough Yersinia in their blood for a flea to pick it up are already very sick. They would only be able to pass their infection on in this way for a very short time-and whoever the flea bit would also sicken within a week, the incubation time of Yersinia. This does not fit the pattern documented by Scott and Duncan. Neither would an extra-virulent Yersinia, which would still depend on rats.

There have been several other ingenious attempts to save the Yersinia theory as inconsistencies have emerged. Many fall back on pneumonic plague, a variant form of Yersinia infection. This can occur in the later stages of bubonic plague, when the bacteria sometimes proliferate in the lungs and can be coughed out, and inhaled by people nearby. Untreated pneumonic plague is invariably fatal and can spread directly from person to person.

Signs and symptoms

Yet the Black Death typically jumped between towns in the time a healthy human took to travel. Also, pneumonic plague kills quickly-within six days, usually less. The last case in the UK was just over years ago. R odents are an ideal host for the disease. There are three main forms of the plague but only pneumonic plague, the most deadly, can be spread between people by coughing.


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This type of the disease is always fatal without treatment - but it can, like other types of plague, be treated with antibiotics if caught early. B ubonic plague, characterised by painful swollen lymph nodes and fever, is the most common and is fatal in 30 to 60 per cent of cases. The bacteria can also enter the bloodstream, causing septicaemic plague - where the skin can turn black and die, particularly on fingers, toes and the nose.