Editorial Reviews. From the Inside Flap. A majority of investors—both experienced 20/20 Money: See the Markets Clearly and Invest Better Than the Pros 20/20 Money—from Fisher Investments Press—can help you achieve this goal.
Table of contents
- Reward Yourself
- 20/20 Money : See the Markets Clearly and Invest Better Than the Pros
- About Wiley
- 20/20 Money : Michael Hanson :
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There was a problem filtering reviews right now. Please try again later. Hansen works as an analyst for Ken Fisher investments, and brings his insight on the usefulness of applying analytical techniques to investing. He correctly identifies the scientific method as our best way of testing hypothesis on what works and if apparent correlations are real. For some reason he uses complex, emergent, adaptive systems, CEAS as an explanation of behavior. Hanson's analysis of how our brain responds to news is reasonable though limited since it is several years old.
While he is well read he is not an expert in the various fields he uses to make a plan for investing. In a way this is an advantage since he explains the subjects in layman terms. He explains that the economy is the sum of all of the output of a country, while the value of stocks is largely a human response to the news of the stocks and subject to an emotional interpretation. People expect the two to go hand in hand, but they frequently don't. Being aware of when they don't coincide can be an investment opportunity. So one of the keys to successful results is to be attuned to short-term disconnect between the market consensus versus what you see as the reality and buy or sell securities on this basis.
How do you handle the investment that fluctuates a lot especially down? You hopefully have done sufficient research to see if your reasons are still valid, if they are stay. He suggests further when in doubt do nothing. Sometimes the extra time provides an opportunity to get more information and make a better decision. There is so much information around we need to be choosy. An effective strategy is to follow supply and demand in areas of interest, since long term supply controls pricing. Market efficiency theory is useful in that it assumes most big problems or hopes are already factored into the market.
He is quite interested in what he calls CEAS, complex, emergent, adaptive systems that he considers a way of looking at what affects markets.
Reward Yourself
When it comes to predicting what markets will do many rely on the law of large numbers, which says that a large entity that is growing rapidly cannot maintain that growth pace forever. The further a price moves from its average the more likely it is to return to its average.
The average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed. This idea results in a bell curve of possibilities where the average is most likely, and the two tails or extremes are improbable. Nassim Taleb has pointed out that these tails are frequently fatter or bigger than expected resulting in big surprises- black swans.
To check the possible returns on a portfolio you can use a Monte Carlo simulation, which is an analytical tool used for modeling future uncertainty. It allows investors to evaluate potential investment outcomes by simulating how they perform under thousands of market scenarios.
Different scenarios can be tried with different levels of risk, return, stability, etc. He is a big fan of studying economic history to be aware of how people reacted in the past to big positive and negative news. Most sentiment, political, and economic patterns in the market have been studied and are well known and already priced into the market. Investors are constantly looking for new ways to understand the markets and see new interrelations.
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20/20 Money : See the Markets Clearly and Invest Better Than the Pros
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About Wiley
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The Economics of Consumption. The New Dynamic Public Finance.
The Psychology of Successful Trading. Microeconomic Theory Old and New. Acts of God and Man. Cost-Benefit Analysis for Project Appraisal. Economic and Financial Decisions under Risk. Developing Decision-Making Skills for Business.
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20/20 Money : Michael Hanson :
Is behavioral economics doomed? Evolutionary Foundations of Equilibria in Irrational Markets. Dynamic Models of Oligopoly. How to write a great review.
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