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Table of contents
- Climate myths: The 'hockey stick' graph has been proven wrong
- Bestselling Series
- HockeyStick, finally updated with modern trees, collapses « JoNova
- Dendrochronology
Crossley, pers. Between A. During this low stand, the lake must have been closed, probably with a response time t e much greater than years. A rich oral tradition confirms that very low levels prevailed during the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. Hydrological modeling by Owen et al. The causes of such a prolonged anomaly remain uncertain, but probably involve large-scale oceanographic changes in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Sediment cores from the lake testify to a prolonged low stand, dated A.
Low levels affected at least two other climatically sensitive lakes in the central Mexican highlands between A. Paleolimnological studies of small lakes in the equatorial upper Amazon. Colinvaux et al.
Climate myths: The 'hockey stick' graph has been proven wrong
The overlap in time between these prolonged anomalies of differing sign in the West Indies, Mexico, and Ecuador, all of which were the most important of the last 3, years in their respective regions, suggests that they reflect a large-scale reorganization of the areas of moisture convergence and cloudiness over the tropical Americas, compatible with a slight southward displacement of the Bermuda High.
Where lakes are concerned, unlike glacier termini and river flows, there is as yet no coordinated program of monitoring and data archiving on a global scale.
Although monthly gauge-board measurements are very simple to make, they are commonly interrupted by large changes in water level that necessitate relocation of the monitoring site, and the data are stored, often in haphazard fashion, by a great diversity of regional or national agencies. A lake integrates the water balance over its catchment area. In arid and semiarid regions in particular, lakes offer the potential of bridging enormous gaps in the network of conventional meteorological and hydrological stations.
Moreover, significant changes in water level are predicted to occur over the next few decades in response to greenhouse warming Cohen, What is needed now is a global program of data collection and storage, making use of appropriate satellite technology to provide monthly coverage on a near-real-time basis. However, much more could be done to coordinate both the collection of conventional instrumental, historical, and paleolimnological data, and the development of automated data-acquisition systems for other satellites. Variability is examined in three types of temperature data: mean hemispheric temperatures from the last years, longer single-site temperature records, and millennium-long tree-ring reconstructions of summer temperature.
The annual average warming, since the late nineteenth century, is of the order of 0. The warming is more erratic in the Northern Hemisphere, with a slight cooling between and The Southern Hemisphere shows less variability, with a more monotonic warming trend in this century.
Longer European temperature records indicate that the warming of the twentieth century is not unusual compared to that of some decades in the late eighteenth century. In most European records the nineteenth century was cooler than the eighteenth, with the s the coldest decade. Some of the warmth of the last years, therefore, may reflect the unusually low starting point. Four millennium-long tree-ring reconstructions Fennoscandia, northern Urals, Tasmania, and northern Patagonia are studied.
In only one of these is the twentieth century the warmest, but in the others it is one of the warmest. Warmer conditions have been reflected in three of the summer reconstructions in previous centuries, but never at the same time at all four locations.
Bestselling Series
One of the main reasons put forward for our inability to detect the enhanced greenhouse effect is that the inherent natural variability of the climate system is sufficiently great to obscure the signal Wigley and Barnett, Although the 0. There are no climatic elements for which we have records long enough to fully define the characteristics of past decade-to-century climate variability. The longest and geographically most extensive measurements are of surface. Measurements have never been global in extent, nor as spatially uniform as required by statistical sampling theory Madden et al.
Furthermore, the expected signals of greenhouse-gas-induced changes e. In this paper we consider two aspects of temperature variability.
First, we study hemispheric-mean temperature variability over the last years. Second, in order to examine temperature variations over longer periods, we look at some long single-site and composite instrumental records, principally from Europe, and at the few millennium-long paleoclimatic reconstructions of summer temperature. Although imperfect, these long records currently represent one of our only methods of looking at century-time-scale variability with "real" data.
Before about years ago, instrumental temperature measurements were limited to Europe, parts of Asia and North America, and some coastal regions of Africa, South America, and Australasia. By the s the only areas without instrumentation were some interior parts of Africa, South America, and Asia; Arctic coasts; and the whole of Antarctica. Although incomplete, the coverage since allows the development of continental and hemispheric averages of temperature. Using compilations of homogeneous station records, Jones and Jones et al. The basic data were interpolated on a regular grid to mitigate the effects of uneven spatial density of the station network.
Interpolating the station data in absolute degrees is not a viable option, since this would be affected by varying station numbers, different station elevations, and different formulae for calculating monthly averages.
HockeyStick, finally updated with modern trees, collapses « JoNova
The use of anomaly values from a common reference period overcomes these problems. A consequence of this procedure is that hemispheric-mean temperatures are expressed in relative rather than absolute terms. Time series of hemispheric-mean seasonal and annual temperature anomalies are shown in Figure 1.
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The features exhibited by the two sets of curves have been discussed before see, for example, Folland et al. The differences in temperature between the second half of the record and the first half are listed in Table 1. The annual series for each hemisphere shows a warming of the order of 0.
Dendrochronology
The warming is considerably more erratic in the Northern Hemisphere, where a cooling of about 0. In the Southern Hemisphere the warming is more monotonic, and there is no evidence of cooling after The various seasonal curves in Figure 1 show considerable variation in periods of warming and cooling. The greater difference between seasonal trends over the last years occurs over the Northern Hemisphere. In summer and autumn, the s were barely warmer than the temperature levels of the s and s. In winter and spring the s were clearly the warmest decade.
All seasons except summer show the long-term warming evident in the annual data.
In summer, the s to s were as warm as the most recent two decades. The cooling from the s to the s is the most pronounced feature of the summer. Surface air temperatures land only by season and year. Data are expressed as anomalies with respect to the average. Smooth curves in this and subsequent plots were obtained by using a year Gaussian filter. Left, Northern Hemisphere temperatures, ; right, Southern Hemisphere temperatures, Northern Hemisphere winters and Southern Hemisphere summers in this and subsequent figures are dated by the year in which the January occurs.
Over the Southern Hemisphere there is more agreement between the long-time-scale seasonal trends. In both hemispheres, greater year-to-year variability is apparent during the nineteenth century. This increased variability is due to the sparser spatial coverage at that time. Although the estimates for individual years may be less reliable in the nineteenth than the twentieth century, the "frozen-grid" analyses undertaken by Jones et al. The coolness of the s compared with to in the Northern Hemisphere is, therefore, probably real.
Thus, for the hemispheric temperature analyses of Hansen and Lebedeff , and Vinnikov et al. Since land represents only 29 percent of the area of the earth's surface, it is important to incorporate marine data into hemispheric averages if we want to get the "best possible" global series. Merchant and naval ships have taken weather observations and measured the temperature of the sea surface since the beginning of the nineteenth century. In the last 20 years, major international efforts have been made to transfer all of the climate data contained in ships' log books into computer data banks.
Another similar data set has been assembled by the U. Meteorological Office Bottomley et al. Much of the data is common to both sets, but comparisons are under way to isolate the unique observations in each. Unfortunately, as with land data, marine records are affected by inhomogeneities and errors. Correction schemes have been devised to adjust both marine air temperatures and sea surface temperatures for biases attributable to the method of measurement, time of day, etc.
Land and marine temperatures may be combined in a number of ways. We describe below the Climatic Research Unit's combined data set, comprising the land temperatures discussed earlier and SST anomalies corrected for changes in measurement technique. The main change is from uninsulated-bucket to engine-intake measurements and some insulated buckets around the start of the s.