Guide Winds Of Providence: A Novel of the Hurricane of 38

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South of the ridge the circulation drives tropical cyclones westward with slight poleward component. But when the cyclone reaches the westward edge of the ridge it will tend to move around the high first poleward then easterly. This is known as recurvature. This motion means that many Atlantic hurricanes may recurve back out to sea without ever making landfall.

If a hurricane reaches the mid-latitudes, it can interact with fronts. Often the energy and moisture of tropical cyclones will be absorbed into such fronts, transitioning into extratropical low pressure storms. Studies have shown that this process can increase the unpredictability of mid-latitude weather downstream for days following. However, some hurricanes will make landfall. Striking an island, especially a mountainous one, could cause its circulation to break down. If it hits a continent, a hurricane will be cut off from its supply of warm, moist maritime air. It will also begin to draw in dry continental air, which combined with increased friction over land leads to the weakening and eventual death of the hurricane.

Over mountainous terrain this will be a quick end. But over flat areas, it may take two to three days to break down the circulation. Even then you are still left with a large pocket of tropical moisture which can cause substantial inland flooding. There have been studies on the rate of storm decay once they make landfall Demaria Kaplan Decay Model. References: Willoughby, H.

Willoughby, H. Clos, and M. Powell, M. Forecasting , 11, pp. Tuleya, R. How does this occur? When the strong winds of a hurricane move over the ocean they churn-up much cooler water from below. The magnitude and distribution of the cooling pattern shown in this illustration is fairly typical for a post-storm SST analysis. The amount of ocean cooling that occurs directly beneath the hurricane within the high wind region of the storm is a much more important question scientists would like to have answered.

Hurricanes get their energy from the warm ocean water beneath them. However, in order to get a more accurate estimate of just how much energy is being transferred from the sea to the storm, scientists need to know ocean temperature conditions directly beneath the hurricane. Recently, scientists at the Hurricane Research Division were able to get a better idea of how much SST cooling occurs directly under a hurricane by looking at many storms over a 28 year period.

In most cases, the ocean temperature under a hurricane will range somewhere between 0. Exactly how much depends on many factors including ocean structure beneath the storm i.

Winds Of Providence: A Novel of the Hurricane of '38

These efforts include statistical studies, modeling efforts and enhanced observational capabilities designed to help scientists better assess upper ocean thermal conditions under the storm. With such improvements, it is believed that future forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity change will be significantly improved.


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Reference: Cione, J. Monthly Weather Review , , The Eye is a roughly circular area of fair weather found at the center of a severe tropical storm.

The eye is the region of the lowest pressure at the surface and the warmest temperatures at the top. Eye size ranges from miles across, but most are miles in diameter. Understanding exactly how the eye forms has been controversial.

Sudden Sea: The Great Hurricane of 1938

Some scientists believe the radial spreading of the wind creates a warm, dry down flow from the upper atmosphere and this forms the cloud-free eye. Others have think the latent heat release in the eyewall forces the subsidence in the storm center creating the eye. The Eyewall is a ring of deep convection bordering the eye of the storm.

This area has the highest surface winds in the tropical cyclone. Because air in the eye is slowly sinking, it creates an updraft in the eyewall. Eyewall replacement happens when a storm reaches its intensity threshold and the eye contracts to a smaller size miles.

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Strong rain bands in the outer storm move inward towards the eye, robbing the inner eyewall of its moisture and momentum and weakening the storm. Spiral Bands are long, narrow bands of rain and thunderstorms that are oriented in the same direction as the wind movement.

They are caused by convection the vertical movement of air masses and they spiral into the center of the tropical cyclone. In contrast, the Moat of a storm usually refers to the region between the eyewall and an outer spiral band where rainfall is relatively lighter, and not all hurricanes have moats. References: Hawkins, H. Weatherford, C. Smith, R.


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Shapiro, L. Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones , R. Elsberry ed. World Meteorological Organization, Report No. TCP; Geneva, Switzerland, 62 pp. If a hurricane is moving to the west, the right side would be to the north of the storm, if it is heading north, then the right side would be to the east of the storm. As a cyclone is moving forward, the side of the spiral with winds moving in the same direction as its movement will be faster, because you are adding two velocities together.

The side of the spiral winds going in the opposite direction will be slower, because you must subtract the wind velocity from the forward velocity. For example, a hurricane with 90mph winds moving at 10mph would have a mph wind speed on the right forward-moving side and 80 mph on the side with the backward motion. How much Energy does a Hurricane Produce? The energy released from a hurricane can be explained in two ways: the total amount of energy released by the condensation of water droplets latent heat , or the amount of kinetic energy generated to maintain the strong, swirling winds of a hurricane.

The vast majority of the latent heat released is used to drive the convection of a storm, but the total energy released from condensation is times the world-wide electrical generating capacity, or 6. If you measure the total kinetic energy instead, it comes out to about 1. Reference: Emanuel, K. Storm tide is the combination of the storm surge and astronomical tide as a result of a storm.

Storm surge is caused by the force of high wind speeds acting on the ocean surface combined with the forward speed of the storm. The height of a storms surge is determined by the approaching angle of the storm as well as the coastline characteristics, such as the shape of the continental shelf and local geographic features, such as inlets. The degree of vulnerability of any stretch of coast is dependent on a number of factors which includes the central pressure, intensity, forward speed, storm size, angle of approach, width and slope of the off-shore continental shelf, and local bays and inlets.

Deterministic runs This is an operational product based on the official NHC track and intensity forecast of a tropical cyclone.

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Operational SLOSH runs are generated whenever a hurricane warning is issued, approximately 36 hours prior to arrival of tropical storm winds. It is run every 6 hours coinciding with the full advisory package. This product is intended to provide valuable surge information in support of rescue and recovery efforts. P-Surge is available whenever a hurricane watch or warning is in effect.

It is posted on the NHC webpage within approximately 30 minutes after the advisory release time. Maximum Envelope of Water MEOW runs This is an ensemble product representing the maximum height of storm surge water in a given basin grid cell using hypothetical storms run with the same:. Internally a number of parallel SLOSH runs with same intensity, forward speed, storm trajectory, and initial tide level are performed for the basin.

The only difference in runs is that each is conducted at some distance to the left or right of the main track typically at the center of the grid. Each component run computes a storm surge value for each grid cell. For example, five parallel runs may yield storm surge values of 4.

In this case, the MEOW for the cell is 7.

The Great Hurricane of 1938 - History Channel - Part 1 of 8

It is unknown to the user which track generated the MEOW for a particular cell, so it is entirely possible that the MEOW values for adjacent cells may have come from different runs. MEOWs are used to incorporate the uncertainties associated with a given forecast and help eliminate the possibility that a critical storm track will be missed in which extreme storm surge values are generated.

MEOWs provide a worst case scenario for a particular category, forward speed, storm trajectory, and initial tide level incorporating uncertainty in forecast landfall location.

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Over 80 MEOWs have been generated for some basins. This product provides useful information aiding in hurricane evacuation planning. Maximum of MEOW MOM runs This is an ensemble product of maximum storm surge heights for all hurricanes of a given category regardless of forward speed, storm trajectory, landfall location, etc..