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We must do better. But we also know that we can do better. History has shown that no country is an exception to this. Mary and John Evelyn continued to have children together. They had another son, also named Richard, who died at an even younger age, as a newborn. Of their eight children, seven died. The diary records of other parents tell us of similar hardship.

The English politician and barrister William Brownlow and his wife Elizabeth Duncombe had 19 children together. Thirteen of them died. Some periods of their life were particularly tragic: in just eight years between and they had seven children. The death of a child has always been the most tragic calamity mothers and fathers could experience.

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The visualization presents the best estimates available. I am showing Sweden because it is a country for which we have particularly good long-run demographic data. Sweden was the first country to establish an office for population statistics: the Tabellverket , which was founded in The total height of the orange and purple area shows the average number of children born per woman — the fertility rate — up to the present.

The area in purple shows the answer to our question; it is the average number of children who died within the first five years of life, per woman. I calculated this by multiplying the number of children per woman by the mortality rate of children under five. Throughout most of the 19th century Swedish women gave, on average, birth to more than four children.

Child mortality in this period was around one-in-four , and at times much higher, so that on average every woman lost one child under the age of five. In Sweden, in the mid 18th century, the fertility rate for married women was 7. For other countries the estimates for the 18th century are similar. In France the average married woman had 8 children and saw around 3. With the decline of child mortality and fertility over the last couple of centuries this has changed dramatically, and in rich countries like Sweden these tragic events have become very rare.

As the data in the chart shows, for Sweden the average has gone down to 0. An experience that just a few generations ago was so common, and that almost every woman suffered through it, is now so rare that today it is only a reality for 1-in Swedish women. In this visualization you can change the country for which this data is shown and explore the trends in countries around the world.

To compare the number of children lost per woman for several countries — and see the data on a world map — you can use this visualisation. In most world regions it has become rare for parents to lose a child, but this is unfortunately not true everywhere. When I write about child mortality some commentators respond by speculating that in times and places where many children die the loss of a child does not hurt parents as much. The mortality that these two couples experienced was higher than the average — which was likely between two and four dead children — and show that parents did not, in any circumstances, find it bearable to lose a child.

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There is no reason to suppose — no evidence anywhere, including that of common sense — that parents were ever, at any point in the past, indifferent to the happiness and well-being of their children. Losing a child has always been terrible for parents, whether it was as common as it was in the past or much rarer as it is today. The chart shows the child mortality rate for the entire world population at 4 different points in time. How to read the following graph: On the x-axis you find the cumulative share of the world population. This makes it possible to see the child mortality rate for each country.

Some countries are labelled, but not all. It is also possible to see which share of the world population had a child mortality rate lower than a given level. Every second child died before the age of 5. The world was clearly divided into developed and developing countries. The rapid progress of the industrialized countries had the consequence that the distribution of global health was hugely unequal.

The latest data refers to Global health has improved hugely. Particularly those countries that had the worst health in the s experienced the most dramatic improvements. China for example reduced its child mortality from The consequence of the faster progress in former developing countries is that global health inequality has fallen since the s. The global average child mortality rate weighted population was Focusing at global inequality we see that in health was bad around the world, in the s the world became unequal, and today we are back to higher equality but on a much higher level.

Also noted here is the start and end date by which this was achieved. Here we see that countries which industrialized rapidly during the 19th century many countries across Europe , it took more than century as high as years in the case of the UK for child mortality to fall from 1-in-3 to 1-in If we look at countries who achieved this in the late 20th or early 21st century, we see that this reduction was much faster. Many across all regions achieved this in under 50 years.

South Korea achieved it in only 25 years. Whilst progress may at times seem persistently slow, we see that fast catch-up improvements are possible. The fact that in those countries with the best health, child mortality rates are times lower than the global average suggests that most of these child deaths are preventable. Here we take a look at the first question: where in the world are children dying? We mapped the global distribution of child deaths in the somewhat unusual visualization. This type of visualization is called a treemap. At a time during which the number of births increased globally, the number of child deaths fell.

In , Every world region also saw a decline. But, some of the countries which have seen the greatest progress are still those where most children are dying today. India has suffered the most child deaths: one million in This was followed by Nigeria , ; Pakistan , ; the Democratic Republic of Congo , ; Ethiopia , ; and China , The total number of children dying depends on two factors: the likelihood a newborn will die in the first years of life and the number of children born.

Here is the map of the mortality rate of children.

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But it has, by far, the largest number of children under five years old. This matters for the possibility to make progress in the future. The number of children under five years old has already peaked and is now falling: in the coming decades, its under-5 population will decline. Our concern will then turn towards countries where the chances of child mortality is high, and the number of births increasing. Countries where children are most likely to die — Somalia, Chad, Central African Republic, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, and Mali — will all have an increasing number of children in the coming decades.


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Progress on reducing child deaths will here therefore become a race between declining child mortality rates and an increasing number of children. But the two runners in the race are not independent: one of the reasons couples have many children is because they do — or expect to — lose some of them early in life. Our progress on reducing child deaths can therefore be amplified if falling child mortality leads to falling fertility rates.

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We know that most child deaths today are preventable. They result from causes we know we can tackle.

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How do we know this? Because we already averted many millions of child deaths in the past few decades. Between and the number of children dying each year fell by 7. By stopping those we know are preventable, we could save at least another 5 million children every year. We can reach a world with many fewer child deaths than ever before. In the chart presented here we see the major causes of death of children under 5 in compared to This type of chart is called a treemap, where the area of each box represents the total number of child deaths for each specific cause.

The total colored area represents the total number of child deaths in As the treemap shows, the boxes representing the numbers for child deaths in are almost always smaller — reflecting the fact that deaths from almost all causes have fallen significantly. There are two major exceptions: the number of deaths from AIDS and the deaths caused by invasive non-typhoidal salmonella iNTS has increased. Although those numbers were higher in than , the deaths from both causes have been decreasing since their peak in While the total number of child deaths has more than halved from Almost every seventh child who died in died of a lower respiratory infection LRI , which has remained the leading cause of mortality over the past three decades.

Pneumonia is the leading LRI. It is caused primarily by bacterial infections. When we talk about child mortality we usually refer to mortality of children under the age of 5. But of all children who die, most do not come close to their fifth birthday: the younger a child is, the higher the risk of mortality. Three times as many children die in the first year of their lives than in the next four years.


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  • And the majority of children who die in their first year die in the neonatal period , the first 27 days after birth. Premature birth being born before the 37th week of gestation is one of the major determinants of neonatal mortality and therefore complications arising from preterm birth are usually grouped with the neonatal disorders, as we did in our chart. Children born prematurely are at high risk of having birth injuries, underdeveloped organ failures, and attracting infectious diseases.

    Every tenth child that died in died because of some diarrheal disease — rotavirus infection, cholera, shigellosis and other infectious diseases that result in diarrhea. Clearly, the fact that diarrheal diseases are the third leading cause of child mortality is simply inexcusable. As we will discuss in another post in this series, an increased coverage of oral rehydration therapy — an incredibly simple treatment for diarrhea — could help to prevent many of these deaths.

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    While classed separately from neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects are significant contributors to infant mortality as well. Infectious diseases have always been one of the major causes of child deaths, but the success of vaccination campaigns and antibiotic availability has done a great deal to reduce mortality from infectious diseases. The WHO has estimated that between and measles vaccination has prevented Today we also have vaccines available for tuberculosis, meningitis, hepatitis, and whooping cough.

    The best way to protect children against malaria today is to provide insecticide treated bednets , but a new malaria vaccine implementation program is also underway. The chart shows the annual change in the number of child deaths from leading causes from onwards. Here we see a dramatic decline in deaths from several causes: lower respiratory infections pneumonia ; preterm birth complications; and diarrheal diseases saw dramatic declines globally in recent decades.

    Vaccine coverage also saw a dramatic decline in deaths from measles. However, more effective prevention for malaria in the form of bednets; and progress on prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV PMCT means these are now also in decline. In the following sections we take a closer look at the leading causes of child mortality one-by-one.

    In doing so, we also try to understand how can we reduce the number of children dying from each cause using treatments and interventions which are already available at our disposal.