Guide The Savaging

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The Savaging of Greece, 2015

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Go to: Kalos: a general utopian strategy. Like the Neapolitan Bourbons — benign by comparison — the leaders of the eurozone have learned nothing, and forgotten nothing. The terms are harsher by a full order of magnitude than those rejected by Greek voters in a landslide referendum a week ago, and therefore can never command democratic assent. EMU inspectors can veto legislation. The emasculation of the Greek parliament has been slipped into the text. All that is missing is a unit of EMU gendarmes. Such terms are unenforceable. It will be used in part to pay off debts.

This fund will be under EU "supervision". The cosmetic niceties of sovereignty will be preserved by letting the Greek authorities manage its day to day affairs. Nobody is fooled. This is not really different from the International Committee for Greek Debt Management in imposed on Greece after the country went bankrupt following a disastrous Balkan war. A six-power league of bondholders, led by British bankers, impounded customs duties in the Port of Piraeus, and seized revenues from stamp duty, tobacco, salt, kerosene, all the way down to playing cards.

But at least there was no humbug about solidarity and helping Greece on that occasion. Under the new terms, Greece must tighten fiscal policy by roughly 2pc of GDP by next year, pushing the country further into a debt-deflation spiral and into the next downwards leg of its six-year depression. This will cause the government to miss the budget targets yet again — probably by a large margin — in an exact repeat of the self-defeating policy that caused Greek debt dynamics to spin out of control in the last two Troika loan packages.


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As the International Monetary Fund acknowledged in its famous mea culpa, if you misjudge the fiscal multiplier and force austerity beyond the therapeutic dose, you make matters worse. The debt to GDP ratio rises despite the cuts. EMU leaders have an answer to this.

Clinical signs

In other words, they will be forced to implement pro-cyclical contractionary policies. The fiscal slippage that acted as a slight cushion over the last five years will be not be tolerated this time. They were not drawn up on the basis of macro-economic analysis. They were written into prior agreements because that is what would be needed — ceteris paribus — to pretend that debt is sustainable, and therefore that the IMF could sign off on the accords. What a charade. Yes, Syriza has blinked, though there are many chapters in this sorry saga yet to come.

The Greek banks are on the verge of collapse. Capital controls have led to an economic stand-still. Almost nothing is coming into the country. Firms are running down their last stocks of raw materials and vital imports. Hundreds of factories, mills, and processing plants have already cut shifts and are preparing to shut down operations as soon as this week.

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