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Because a primary challenge would naturally come from the left and is unlikely to succeed, it will tend to attract people who dont have a future in GOP national politics and lack conservative bona fides the wayward former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld; the centrist governor of Maryland Larry Hogan; the former Ohio governor John Kasich, who convincingly demonstrated his lack of national electoral appeal in Trump is in a stronger position in the party now. Hes been a rock on judges, abortion and religious liberty.

Last time, many Republicans told themselves, Well, at least compared to Hillary, we dont know what were getting with Trump. Now, they are grateful for what theyve gotten. Could all of this change? It would require a torpedo to the bow from some enormous scandal and a significant ideological betrayal on something extremely important, like a Supreme Court nominee. The promoters of a Trump primary challenge still havent come to grips with how intertwined Trumps fate is with the partys. If Trump becomes seriously vulnerable to a primary challenge, its a sign that something very bad has happened that wont be constrained to him.

Say its proof of a criminal conspiracy with the Russians. Is the rest of the party that has defended Trump so vociferously in the Mueller probe going to emerge unscathed? Say its a sudden economic downturn. Whats the case that such an event wouldnt tank the GOP generally?


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Indeed, a winning primary campaign against Trump would almost certainly be a catastrophic success. How would the winner put the party back together again for the general election? Perhaps the hardcore Trump base and media will enthusiastically back whoever slays their champion. But why would they? Besides the inevitable hurt feelings and ideological disagreements, they will surely consider recent precedent Never Trump would be the analogue to Never Hogan. There is obviously a character case to be made against Trump, although Republican voters are already aware of his flaws and strongly support him nonetheless.

The contradiction in the case for a primary challenge is this: If its a bad thing that Trump is potentially a weak general-election candidate, as Trumps critics say, then why make him potentially weaker with a primary challenge? What many of Trumps GOP detractors wont say out loud is that when they talk of defeating Trump, they dont mean only in a nomination battle; they mean seeing him lose in a general election.

That Republican voters would sense this, and understandably recoil, is another reason a primary challenge is probably a box canyon.

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