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However, the connection between them is quite loose and difficult to employ to predict recessions confidently.

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For example, the yield curve was inverted for much of — suggesting a recession might be coming. But it is no longer inverted — suggesting the opposite. When you see housing starts tailing off, that does tend to be a sign of trouble.

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And the reason for that is simply that the trouble has already started, as in So you are not really predicting a recession as much as noticing it early. They were really, really strong in September.

But there is a lot of variability in expansion length. For example, the expansion that started right around also lasted 10 years. Recognizing this variability in expansion length, the data suggest that the bulk of expansions would be less than 10 years in duration.

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