Perspectives in World Food and Agriculture 2004,: Volume 2

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Miller, C, Matthews, A. Globaali ruokaturva, hintojen heilahtelu ja niiden vaikutukset EU: A double-hurdle model of Irish household expenditure on prepared meals, Applied Economics 35, , pp. Economic determinants of private afforestation in the Republic of Ireland, Land Use Policy 20, , pp. Developing countries' position in WTO: Measuring productivity change and efficiency on Irish farms with S. O'Neill and Leavy, T. Agricultural tariff rate quotas as a development instrument with C. Laroche-Dupraz , Economie Internationale , 87, , pp. How important is agriculture and the agri-food sector in Ireland?

Multilateral trade reform in agriculture and the developing countries, Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture , 39, 3, , What is at stake in the TTIP? Brussels, Centre for European Policy Studies, , pp. Food security as a driver of integration in Europe, in Brennan, L. Alan Matthews, Unfulfilled Expectations? EPAs and the demise of the commodity protocols, in Faber, G. Irish perspectives, in Callan T. Alan Matthews and Jacques Gallezot, Beyond Concept to Practice, in Novel, A.

Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects

Agricultural tariff rate quotas to developing countries with C. Laroche Dupraz , in Guha-Khasnobis, B. Agriculture, in Johnson, P. European Union agri-environmental policy - issues and pitfalls with Convery, F. Agribusiness and economy wide effects of CAP reforms with R. O'Toole , in Teagasc, Outlook New Approach, New Targets ed. Peter Witzke, , pp. Alan Matthews, Policy Coherence for Development: Ataman Aksoy and Bernard M. Review of Moyer, W. In Journal of Agricultural Economics , 57, 1, , Review of James D.


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In developed countries, carcass weight growth will contribute an increasing share of livestock production growth as expansion of numbers is expected to slow; numbers may contract in some regions. Globally, however, between and , the global cattle population may increase from 1. Ruminant grazing intensity in the rangelands is projected to increase, resulting in considerable intensification of livestock production in the humid and subhumid grazing systems of the world, particularly in LAC.

Data from Rosegrant et al. The prices of meats, milk and cereals are likely to increase in the coming decades, dramatically reversing past trends. Rapid growth in meat and milk demand may increase prices for maize and other coarse grains and meals. Bioenergy demand is projected to compete with land and water resources, and this will exacerbate competition for land from increasing demands for feed resources.

Growing scarcities of water and land will require substantially increased resource use efficiencies in livestock production to avoid adverse impacts on food security and human wellbeing goals. Higher prices can benefit surplus agricultural producers, but can reduce access to food by a larger number of poor consumers, including farmers who do not produce a net surplus for the market. As a result, progress in reducing malnutrition is projected to be slow Rosegrant et al.

Livestock system evolution in the coming decades is inevitably going to involve trade-offs between food security, poverty, equity, environmental sustainability and economic development. Historically, domestication and the use of conventional livestock breeding techniques have been largely responsible for the increases in yield of livestock products that have been observed over recent decades Leakey et al. At the same time, considerable changes in the composition of livestock products have occurred. If past changes in demand for livestock products have been met by a combination of conventional techniques, such as breed substitution, cross-breeding and within-breed selection, future changes are likely to be met increasingly from new techniques.

Of the conventional techniques, selection among breeds or crosses is a one-off process, in which the most appropriate breed or breed cross can be chosen, but further improvement can be made only by selection within the population Simm et al. Cross-breeding, widespread in commercial production, exploits the complementarity of different breeds or strains and makes use of heterosis or hybrid vigour Simm Such rates of change have been achieved in practice over the last few decades in poultry and pig breeding schemes in several countries and in dairy cattle breeding programmes in countries such as the USA, Canada and New Zealand Simm , mostly because of the activities of breeding companies.

Rates of genetic change achieved in national beef cattle and sheep populations are often substantially lower than what is theoretically possible. Ruminant breeding in most countries is often highly dispersed, and sector-wide improvement is challenging. Rates of genetic change have increased in recent decades in most species in developed countries for several reasons, including more efficient statistical methods for estimating the genetic merit of animals, the wider use of technologies such as artificial insemination and more focused selection on objective traits such as milk yield Simm et al.

The greatest gains have been made in poultry and pigs, with smaller gains in dairy cattle, particularly in developed countries and in the more industrialized production systems of some developing countries. Some of this has been achieved through the widespread use of breed substitution, which tends to lead to the predominance of a few highly specialized breeds, within which the genetic selection goals may be narrowly focused. While most of the gains have occurred in developed countries, there are considerable opportunities to increase productivity in developing countries.

Within-breed selection has not been practised all that widely, in part because of the lack of the appropriate infrastructure needed such as performance recording and genetic evaluation schemes. Breed substitution or crossing can result in rapid improvements in productivity, but new breeds and crosses need to be appropriate for the environment and to fit within production systems that may be characterized by limited resources and other constraints. High-performing temperate breeds of dairy cow may not be appropriate for some developing-country situations: There is much more potential in the use of crosses of European breeds with local Zebus that are well-adapted to local conditions.

FUTURE DEMAND FOR ANIMAL PROTEIN

In the future, many developed countries will see a continuing trend in which livestock breeding focuses on other attributes in addition to production and productivity, such as product quality, increasing animal welfare, disease resistance and reducing environmental impact. The tools of molecular genetics are likely to have considerable impact in the future.

For example, DNA-based tests for genes or markers affecting traits that are difficult to measure currently, such as meat quality and disease resistance, will be particularly useful Leakey et al. Another example is transgenic livestock for food production; these are technically feasible, although the technologies associated with livestock are at an earlier stage of development than the equivalent technologies in plants.

In combination with new dissemination methods such as cloning, such techniques could dramatically change livestock production.

Complete genome maps for poultry and cattle now exist, and these open up the way to possible advances in evolutionary biology, animal breeding and animal models for human diseases Lewin Genomic selection should be able to at least double the rate of genetic gain in the dairy industry Hayes et al.

Genomic selection is not without its challenges, but it is likely to revolutionize animal breeding. As the tools and techniques of breeding are changing, so are the objectives of many breeding programmes. Although there is little evidence of direct genetic limits to selection for yield, if selection is too narrowly focused there may be undesirable associated responses Simm et al. Trade-offs are likely to become increasingly important, between breeding for increased efficiency of resource use, knock-on impacts on fertility and other traits and environmental impacts such as methane production.

New tools of molecular genetics may have far-reaching impacts on livestock and livestock production in the coming decades. But ultimately, whether the tools used are novel or traditional, all depend on preserving access to animal genetic resources. In developing countries, if livestock are to continue to contribute to improving livelihoods and meeting market demands, the preservation of farm animal genetic resources will be critical in helping livestock adapt to climate change and the changes that may occur in these systems, such as shifts in disease prevalence and severity.

In developed countries, the narrowing animal genetic resource base in many of the intensive livestock production systems demonstrates a need to maintain as broad a range of genetic resources as possible, to provide genetic insurance against future challenges and shocks. Institutional and policy frameworks that encourage the sustainable use of traditional breeds and in situ conservation need to be implemented, and more understanding is needed of the match between livestock populations, breeds and genes with the physical, biological and economic landscape FAO The nutritional needs of farm animals with respect to energy, protein, minerals and vitamins have long been known, and these have been refined in recent decades.

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)- Documentary

Various requirement determination systems exist in different countries for ruminants and non-ruminants, which were originally designed to assess the nutritional and productive consequences of different feeds for the animal once intake was known. However, a considerable body of work exists associated with the dynamics of digestion, and feed intake and animal performance can now be predicted in many livestock species with high accuracy. A large agenda of work still remains concerning the robust prediction of animal growth, body composition, feed requirements, the outputs of waste products from the animal and production costs.

Such work could go a long way to help improve the efficiency of livestock production and meeting the expectations of consumers and the demands of regulatory authorities. Advances in genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics will continue to contribute to the field of animal nutrition and predictions relating to growth and development Dumas et al. Better understanding of the processes involved in animal nutrition could also contribute to improved management of some of the trade-offs that operate at high levels of animal performance, such as those associated with lower reproductive performance Butler While understanding of the science of animal nutrition continues to expand and develop, most of the world's livestock, particularly ruminants in pastoral and extensive mixed systems in many developing countries, suffer from permanent or seasonal nutritional stress Bruinsma Poor nutrition is one of the major production constraints in smallholder systems, particularly in Africa.

Much research has been carried out to improve the quality and availability of feed resources, including work on sown forages, forage conservation, the use of multi-purpose trees, fibrous crop residues and strategic supplementation.

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There are also prospects for using novel feeds from various sources to provide alternative sources of protein and energy, such as plantation crops and various industrial including ethanol by-products. The potential of such feeds is largely unknown. Given the prevalence of mixed crop—livestock systems in many parts of the world, closer integration of crops and livestock in such systems can give rise to increased productivity and increased soil fertility McIntire et al. In such systems, smallholders use crops for multiple purposes food and feed, for example , and crop breeding programmes are now well established that are targeting stover quality as well as grain yield in crops such as maize, sorghum, millet and groundnut.

Considerable work is under way to address some of the issues associated with various antinutritional factors. These include methods to reduce the tannin content of tree and shrub material, the addition of essential oils that may be beneficial in ruminant nutrition and the use of other additives such as enzymes that can lead to beneficial effects on livestock performance. Enzymes are widely added to feeds for pigs and poultry, and these have contributed with breeding to the substantial gains in feed conversion efficiency that have been achieved. What are the prospects for the future?

For the mixed crop—livestock smallholder systems in developing countries, there may be places where these will intensify using the inputs and tools of high-input systems in the developed world. In the places where intensification of this nature will not be possible, there are many ways in which nutritional constraints could be addressed, based on what is locally acceptable and available. One area of high priority for additional exploration, which could potentially have broad implications for tropical ruminant nutrition, is microbial genomics of the rumen, building on current research into the breaking down of lignocellulose for biofuels NRC Addressing the nutritional constraints faced by pastoralists in extensive rangeland systems in the developing world is extremely difficult.

While there is potential to improve livestock productivity in semi-arid and arid areas, probably the most feasible solutions require integrated application of what is already known, rather than new technology. This could involve dissemination of information from early warning systems and drought prediction, for example, so that herders can better manage the complex interactions between herd size, feed availability and rainfall NRC For the developed world, various drivers will shape the future of livestock nutrition. First, there is the continuing search for increased efficiency in livestock production.

Margins for livestock farmers are likely to remain volatile and may be affected heavily by changes in energy prices, and increased feed conversion efficiency is one way to try to keep livestock production profitable. Public health issues will become increasingly important, such as concerns associated with the use of antibiotics in animal production, including microbiological hazards and residues in food Vallat et al.

The World Health Organization recommended that all subtherapeutic medical antibiotic use be stopped in livestock production in , and proposed strict regulation and the phasing-out of other subtherapeutic treatments such as growth promotants; but appropriate surveillance and control programmes do not exist in many countries Leakey et al. All antibiotics as growth promoters were banned in the European Union EU in , but not all countries have made the same choice as the EU. Similarly, certain hormones can increase feed conversion efficiencies, particularly in cattle and pigs, and these are used in many parts of the world.

The EU has also banned the use of hormones in livestock production. The globalization of the food supply chain will continue to raise consumer concerns for food safety and quality. Another key driver that will affect livestock nutrition is the need or in countries such as the UK, the legal obligation to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Improved feeding practices such as increased amounts of concentrates or improved pasture quality can reduce methane emissions per kilogram of feed intake or per kilogram of product, although the magnitude of the latter reduction decreases as production increases.

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Many specific agents and dietary additives have been proposed to reduce methane emissions, including certain antibiotics, compounds that inhibit methanogenic bacteria, probiotics such as yeast culture and propionate precursors such as fumarate or malate that can reduce methane formation Smith et al. Whether these various agents and additives are viable for practical use or not, and what their ultimate impacts could be on greenhouse gas mitigation, are areas that need further research.

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The economic impacts of diseases are increasingly difficult to quantify, largely because of the complexity of the effects that they may have, but they may be enormous: At the same time, new diseases have emerged, such as avian influenza H5N1, which have caused considerable global concern about the potential for a change in host species from poultry to man and an emerging global pandemic of human influenza.

Over this time, there has also been a general decline in the quality of veterinary services. A difficulty in assessing the changing disease status in much of the developing world is the lack of data, a critical area where progress needs to be made if disease diagnostics, monitoring and impact assessment are to be made effective and sustainable.

For the future, the infectious disease threat will remain diverse and dynamic, and combating the emergence of completely unexpected diseases will require detection systems that are flexible and adaptable in the face of change King et al. Travel, migration and trade will all continue to promote the spread of infections into new populations. Trade in exotic species and in bush meat are likely to be increasing causes of concern, along with large-scale industrial production systems, in which conditions may be highly suitable for enabling disease transmission between animals and over large distances Otte et al.

Over the long term, future disease trends could be heavily modified by climate change. For some vector-borne diseases such as malaria, trypanosomiasis and bluetongue, climate change may shift the geographical areas where the climate is suitable for the vector, but these shifts are not generally anticipated to be major over the next 20 years: Even so, Van Dijk et al. This has obvious implications for policy-makers and the sheep and cattle industries, and raises the need for improved diagnosis and early detection of livestock parasitic disease, along with greatly increased awareness and preparedness to deal with disease patterns that are manifestly changing.

Climate change may have impacts not only on the distribution of disease vectors. Some diseases are associated with water, which may be exacerbated by flooding and complicated by inadequate water access. Droughts may force people and their livestock to move, potentially exposing them to environments with health risks to which they have not previously been exposed.

While the direct impacts of climate change on livestock disease over the next two to three decades may be relatively muted King et al. Future disease trends are likely to be heavily modified by disease surveillance and control technologies. Potentially effective control measures already exist for many infectious diseases, and whether these are implemented appropriately could have considerable impacts on future disease trends.

There are also options associated with the manipulation of animal genetic resources, such as cross-breeding to introduce genes into breeds that are otherwise well-adapted to the required purposes, and the selection via molecular genetic markers of individuals with high levels of disease resistance or tolerance. The future infectious disease situation is going to be different from today's Woolhouse , and will reflect many changes, including changes in mean climate and climate variability, demographic change and different technologies for combating infectious diseases.

The nature of most, if not all, of these changes is uncertain, however. Recent assessments expect little increase in pasture land Bruinsma ; MA Some intensification in production is likely to occur in the humid—subhumid zones on the most suitable land, where this is feasible, through the use of improved pastures and effective management. In the more arid—semiarid areas, livestock are a key mechanism for managing risk, but population increases are fragmenting rangelands in many places, making it increasingly difficult for pastoralists to gain access to the feed and water resources that they have traditionally been able to access.

In the future, grazing systems will increasingly provide ecosystem goods and services that are traded, but how future livestock production from these systems may be affected is not clear. The mixed crop—livestock systems will continue to be critical to future food security, as two-thirds of the global population live in these systems. Some of the higher potential mixed systems in Africa and Asia are already facing resource pressures, but there are various responses possible, including efficiency gains and intensification options Herrero et al.

Increasing competition for land in the future will also come from biofuels, driven by continued concerns about climate change, energy security and alternative income sources for agricultural households. Future scenarios of bioenergy use vary widely Van Vuuren et al. Globally, freshwater resources are relatively scarce, amounting to only 2. Groundwater also plays an important role in water supply: By , 64 per cent of the world's population will live in water-stressed basins, compared with 38 per cent today Rosegrant et al.

Increasing livestock numbers in the future will clearly add to the demand for water, particularly in the production of livestock feed: Several entry points for improving global livestock water productivity exist, such as increased use of crop residues and by-products, managing the spatial and temporal distribution of feed resources so as to better match availability with demand and managing systems so as to conserve water resources Peden et al. More research is needed related to livestock—water interactions and integrated site-specific interventions, to ensure that livestock production in the future contributes to sustainable and productive use of water resources Peden et al.

Issues Related to U. Pork Production Dermot J. Hayes and Helen H. Technological Choice and the Changing Structure of Agriculture: Scanes and Richard L. Perspectives in World Food and Agriculture , Volume 2. Added to Your Shopping Cart. Description The second volume in a series designed to keep agricultural leaders abreast of the most up-to-date information concerning global agriculture, Perspectives in World Food and Agriculture, Volume 2 brings together cutting-edge agricultural research and the latest views on agricultural policy.

Written by internationally renowned researchers, scientists, and academics, Volume 2 includes: The UN's approaches to address global food security and poverty An essay by the World Food Prize Laureat Globalization, emerging diseases, and invasive specie Environmental sustainability Plant-derived vaccines, antibiotic bans, and health impacts The future of agricultural biotechnology The pivotal role of agriculture in human developmen Global agricultural statistics and projections Aimed at faculty, undergraduate and graduate students in colleges of agriculture, policy makers, government and industry scientists, public libraries, farmers and agribusiness operators, this book is key to keeping current on agricultural research and policy.

As Executive Coordinator of the Secretary's Policy Coordination Council, he worked to develop and implement programs on water quality, food safety, pest control and other vital topics. He has written and served as editor for several books and numerous refereed papers in environmental and resource economics and agricultural policy.