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Table of contents

The EVI assesses every country on its key performance indicators and accumulates a score from zero to five. It then translates these into an overall weighted score, which is the basis for the final EVI matrix and country ranking exhibit. The global electric-vehicle EV industry continues to expand rapidly. However, regional performance varies, with some EV markets approaching near-mainstream status, while others remain stuck in neutral. Overall, global EV-sales volumes are becoming large enough to create substantial profit pools for well-positioned suppliers and other upstream players—but they are also having a negative impact on traditional OEM profit margins.

The entire power-train value chain continues to recalibrate as OEMs follow different sourcing strategies across e-power-train components and as many incumbents, plus new suppliers, enter the market. In the current highly competitive environment, the ultimate winners have yet to be determined. To accelerate and ensure sustainable, profitable growth, the industry still needs to overcome several challenges. EV sales grew to more than two million units globally in an increase of 63 percent on a year-on-year basis, and a rate slightly higher than in prior years.

Nevertheless, with a penetration rate of 2. Regional performance varies considerably, with some EV markets approaching near-mainstream status, while others are simply marking time. A breakdown of EV-industry progress through by select countries or regions follows. The market experienced healthy growth—despite a subsidy cut by the government, which significantly impeded sales of micro EVs that once represented around half of the Chinese EV market.


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While last year, BEVs with a very high range and energy density benefited from an increase in subsidies, the government has now cut the incentives at all levels. Standing at 1. With the government aiming to phase out subsidies entirely by next year, OEMs are in doubt that the market will be robust enough to sustain its growth beyond Furthermore, the trend toward an overall market decline light-vehicle sales fell around 15 percent through May compared with last year might also affect the EV segment going forward.

The European EV market saw moderate growth an increase of 90, units , with a mixed picture at the country level. Norway remains significantly ahead of other markets and appears on its way to mass-market adoption. Large markets in absolute light-vehicle-unit sales terms such as France, Germany, and the United Kingdom still have to gain momentum, with EV-market shares of around 2 percent, while comparably small Nordic countries, like Norway 40 percent market share , Iceland 17 percent , and Sweden 7 percent , currently perform the best.

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However, tightening CO 2 -emission regulation will most likely lead to significantly larger market shares for EVs across Europe through —21 and beyond. Tesla sold , Model 3 cars in , making it the best-selling EV in the United States 40 percent market share and globally 7 percent.

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For the first time in the country, an EV model sold equally as well as comparable internal-combustion-engine ICE cars. While high sales numbers for the Model 3 in were partially supported by EV tax credits and high demand from the list of reservation holders, they still show that EVs can be attractive alternatives to gasoline-powered cars and that a strong market potential exists for a growing number of premium and mass-premium buyers.

Nevertheless, sustainable market growth will also depend on regulatory developments, given ongoing discussions among federal and national parties regarding the rollback of fuel-economy standards as well as state authority under the Clean Air Act. Japan lost momentum from , when sales increased by percent driven by the introduction of a next-generation PHEV model.

In , the market declined by 9 percent compared with the year before, with EV penetration standing at only 1 percent. While Japanese OEMs were among the first movers with respect to the introduction of EVs, the country now lacks a strong push for more aggressive adoption. There has been some activity around BEVs recently, with Japanese OEMs moving from full hybrids and hydrogen fuel cells to pure battery-electric technology, as the former alternative-propulsion technologies struggle to win widespread global support.

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The Indian EV market remains largely driven by mass- and low-cost-mobility segments, such as two- and three-wheelers. Recent government policies and those under debate could steeply accelerate electrification in these segments for instance, differentiated tax policy promoting EVs and localized incentives to promote start-ups. In addition to such regulatory tailwinds, product innovation in the form of new two- and three-wheel EV models rolling out each year using longer-range lithium-ion batteries and new business models, such as battery swapping, are having an impact.

On the other hand, four-wheel EV sales have been almost unnoticeable so far, with fewer than 2, units sold in out of a total light-vehicle sales volume of four million units.


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    8. Insufficient four-wheel consumer-focused government incentive schemes, limited models, price-sensitive consumers, and a lack of charging-infrastructure investment public or private are persistent challenges. Benchmarking policies focused on what other markets are doing could improve this situation, as could increases in EV imports while domestic players retool for EV production. This year, the government announced plans to order ride-hailing companies to convert 40 percent of their fleets to electric by However, industry observers project that in and , the intensity of competition will heat up significantly, with competitive models launched by several international premium brands.

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    The industry needs the emission relief EVs provide—especially in Europe, where average industry fleet emissions did not decrease for two consecutive years in and In addition, the European Union agreed last year—as the first market globally—to commit to even more stringent CO 2 -emission targets through , aiming to reduce CO 2 emissions by International OEMs should catch up on CAFC progress because of an increase in EV sales through new-model launches, although they may benefit less from government purchases.

    While EV manufacturers continue to make progress in developing EVs with greater range, more power, and superior styling, the industry still needs to overcome several challenges to accelerate growth and scale EVs in a sustainable way. Automotive-OEM-profitability compression because of EVs and other advanced technology is now a top concern for management: EV investments ramp higher each year, and increasing losses are tied to negative margins for most EV models sold in In the short term to midterm, these include redesigning EVs with new approaches to content trade-offs, expanding partnerships with mobility players, and making bolder moves to partner with competing OEMs on platform development and manufacturing.

    Across these different markets, we continue to find that OEM strategies to develop and promote EVs are not always in sync or well supported by all players in the e-mobility ecosystem. High-level findings of the Electric Vehicle Outlook are available in the free public report. Click to read EVO Want to learn how we help our clients put it all together? Contact us. Bloomberg Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world.

    View the free interactive report. Overview View report Authors. Overview The Electric Vehicle Outlook is our annual long-term forecast of how electrification and shared mobility will impact road transport from now to This includes light, medium and heavy duty trucks in urban, regional and long-haul duty cycles.

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    It also covers other alternative drivetrains like natural gas and hydrogen fuel cells. A more detailed view of the impact that autonomy, ride-hailing and sharing will have on the overall car market, including a new overall vehicle-demand forecast.


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    An updated EV cost model that includes the cost of a home EV charger to more accurately reflect the costs individuals face to go electric. An updated e-bus forecast taking into account sales, urbanization forecasts and manufacturing capacity.

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