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More persistent forcing can push the system to the “point of no return,” where a A threshold is reached when the valley becomes shallower and finally.
Table of contents
- Global warming: a point of no return for the planet?
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Article at a glance. Small climate changes can make very big differences Report focused on 12 key tipping elements at risk Possible half meter sea level rise by Report more positive on melting permafrost. That is a mistake, warns the 'Tipping Points Report' published by Allianz and WWF With global warming a smooth transition is unlikely, says the report. Points of no return? In some cases the report offers more reassurance. Regional extremes. James Tulloch. This could be interesting for you. IPCC climate change facts: Humanity is responsible A guide to the climate science underpinning efforts to combat global warming, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Read more. Should we try to control the climate? Two eminent scientists argue the case for and against slowing global warming by blocking sunlight. The extremely complex web of interdependencies that keep ecosystems dynamic and healthy give rise to plenty of potential thresholds and it is extremely difficult to predict consequences of external changes. The myriad influences on the health of ecosystems habitat loss, logging, urbanization, species introduction etc.
Examples such as a rise in minimum winter temperatures that allow a new insect species to gain a foothold in a new ecosystem pine bark beetles in Alaska , or warming that leads to movement upward in altitude of ecosystem zones that end up reducing the area of existing alpine biomes. For a species that becomes extinct as a result of crossing a threshold, the answer is obviously yes. This is really a question of time scale. Changes to aerosol concentrations can be reversed in a few weeks after an emission change. CO 2 levels however are much slower to change and are already very unlikely to revert to pre-industrial values in any scenario over the next few hundred years.
Global warming: a point of no return for the planet?
In this minimal sense the climate is already past the point of no return compared to pre-industrial climate. Model simulations of the thermohaline circulation indicate that for small perturbations, recovery can occur in a few decades. For larger perturbations i. The clues from the paleo-record indicate that there is likely a bi-modal spectrum of overturning states in glacial climates, but there is no evidence of such multiple steady states in the Holocene.
Currently the ice sheets exist in part because they already exist i. Should the ice sheet start to melt in a serious way i. Thus if Greenland disappeared, it is unlikely that it would grow back even under current climate, let alone in a warmer world. He very specifically was not indicating that some irreversibly large change in climate would happen in 10 years. Instead he was pointing to the trajectory of increasing CO 2 emissions that continue to add to atmospheric concentrations.
We have estimated this at about 0. Is it realistic timescale? That is very difficult to judge. In 10 years time CO 2 levels will likely be greater than ppm and the additional forcing combined with the inertia of the system will be make it increasingly unlikely that we will avoid a further 1 deg C or more warming. However, it seems more appropriate to view the system as having multiple tipping points and thresholds that range in importance and scale from the smallest ecosystem to the size of the planet. As the system is forced into new configurations more and more of those points are likely to be passed, but some of those points are more globally serious than others.
An appreciation of that subtlety may be useful when reading some of the worst coverage on the topic. Great summary. This is the justification he gives for his new movie and his desire to train more people to give his slide show.
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Does anyone know where he is going to recruit the people from? The graphics are far better than those of my own slide show that I give fairly often. These workshops have trained hundreds of presenters from many walks of life, who collectively have given thousands of presentations on campuses, to community and business groups, etc.
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Excellent discussion, Gavin. The temporal resolution of the ice core records is also very coarse, millenia between samples, so one would have to wait maybe 10K yrs and look back to see if we have the same T and CO2 correlation assuming there is ice left to core at that time. I suppose that one is still pretty far off, but I would not be surprise if a few hundred thousand years from now, or less, there was no ice left anywhere. Just curious, since the CO2 levels are much higher now than they were back then, why was it hotter back then? That seasonal change may have been crucial for the ice sheets.
See the recent Overpeck et al and Otto-Bliesner et al papers in Science for what climate differences one would expect. But given your description of tipping points and points of no return, a conservative approach seems to be in order. You are several orders of magnitude off with that comment. Excellent post. Take that factor down by 10 to complete deglaciation and loss of all ice at poles within years.
Long before that thermohaline shutdown and superstorms and 20 foot sea rise. Good post, good comments. Hope the Republicans who hold all the power in all three branches are listening. Thankyou to all the posts and comments from your site. You guys are cool, and should be mandatory reading at Senate briefings. Do you have any suggested reading on this?
How exactly do they know what the orbital configuration was like K years ago? Some other analogies:. I think that Figure 1 in [Falkowski, P. The global carbon cycle: A test of our knowledge of the Earth as a system.
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Science It shows the correlation between atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 for the last , years and the deuterium-based air temperature anomaly. I agree that it is important to point out that there can be many tipping points depending on your frame of reference. For islanders that have already been forced to relocate 20th century sea-level rise has already passed a tipping point of no return. With respect to the complete collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation will you kindly clearify the following for me.
It is my understanding that a fluid initially at rest on a rotating mostly sphere-like surface which in turn is revolving around a sun cannot remain at rest. If this is not correct let me know. Otherwise will you summarize the patterns of the induced motions for fluid bounded by the same boundries that now bound the ATC. Let me know if I have not correctly understood the article. This is a bit surprising — I wonder if this is why the Russian astronomer predicts a drastic change in climate in the next few decades? In the middle of the road projections, this corresponds to sometime in the latter third of this century.
I realize Hansen is talking about the head long plunge of human and climate commitment, rather than the transition itself, but are there new results since the TAR to suggest that a tipping point might come earlier than previously expected? Of course one does want to stay on the careful side in case the model results are too conservative. I guess I am also surprised by how much press is devoted to tipping points, if, as the IPCC suggest, most of us may not actually live long enough to see such events.
Re: Orbital mechanics is very precise, and we can reliable describe the changes in the Earth orbit going back more than 10 million years.
The present interglacial occurs during a period of low orbital eccentricity, and consequently the scale of the orbital forcing is lower now than during the last several interglacials. Re: 19 That is a very interesting article, and I certainly learned quite a bit from it. Plus the equator would be warmer, and one could therefore assume that there would be more storms in the equatorial region and perhaps fewer in the mid-Atlantic. Aloha all. This is my first post here and actually my first visit here.
I followed a link from ThinkProgress.