Manual Unconstrained

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Table of contents

Constrained demand forecasts ask the question — given production capacity and market demand, what is the total number of products your business can expect to sell? It is important for businesses to understand their realistic production capacity in order to inform and improve operations strategies and maximise actual sales.

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An unconstrained demand forecast is focused on demand potential. It asks — what is the total number of products your business could sell based solely on market demand, ignoring supply-side capacity constraints?

Constrained optimization introduction

Take no consideration of any constraints to your ability to meet the total forecast market demand. You might not have enough capital to purchase necessary supplies or maintain equipment, for example.

Unconstrained vs. Constrained Forecasting: Balancing Commercial Dreams with Reality

You may not have sufficient manufacturing or stock holding capacity to increase turnover. You might simply not have the manpower to answer all the sales enquiries that are clogging your phone line, or an online inventory management and ordering system! If you could access all needed materials and labour, fully increase production capacity and meet all anticipated market demand, how many sales could you make?

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That is your unconstrained forecast. Unconstrained refers to the unconstrained forecast being a view of anticipated sales volume unaffected or limited by supply-side constraints.


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It is a projected view of potential sales volume based on realistic analysis of actual expected demand. An unconstrained forecast is more imaginative than a supply-side-constrained forecast. It plays a vital role in the formation of business strategy, helping management to plan for future growth.

It is imperative to manage inventory appropriately so that supply and demand are always balanced.

The Revenge of Unconstrained Bond Funds | Institutional Investor

However, all the inventory management techniques and software in the world will not solve the problem if forecasting is not done appropriately. We then can appreciate unconstrained and constrained forecasting, where they both shine and how they affect inventory procurement.

A customer wants a product or service which creates demand, and a company seeks to supply this demand. This is a generic and rather simplified view, however, if we take it further, we can group different activities in a company into the supply or demand boxes and can see how they affect our forecasting. Promotional activities and marketing form part of the demand activities of a company as this generates awareness and subsequent demand in the customer. When conducted appropriately, an optimum level of demand can be generated. Procurement, logistics and manufacturing form the supply side of the company where they work tirelessly to supply the demand created by the marketing department.

This type of forecast does not factor in supply constraints as it aims to generate a picture of what could happen in terms of demand and profitability if the company was able to fulfil every order every time with no issues. This is the ideal and where every company wants to be, however, the reality is that supply constraints exist and must be considered.

unconstrained

So, we keep the unconstrained forecast and then we develop a constrained forecast from it. This is the forecast which incorporates all the known supply constraints that exist for the company so that the end product is a realistic picture of supply and demand and what the company can feasibly manage in terms of fulfilling orders.

If a company finds that they will not feasibly be able to service the forecasted demand in the unconstrained forecast with their current resources and capabilities, they have a choice to make: either they can adapt their resources to increase their supply capability or they can adapt the demand plan so to reduce the unconstrained forecast to match their supply capability.