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Case Studies in Resilience and Vulnerability Gyles Iannone. Sieferle, Rolf P. In Regional Analysis. Vol. 2: Social Systems, edited by Carol A. Smith, 3–
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• Review of the Roots of Youth Violence: Literature Reviews
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• 1. AGRICULTURAL AND FARM SYSTEMS - CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS
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Households in the Cordillera Blanca in Peru reported that increasing climatic extremes and recession of the Andean glaciers have led to a decline in crop productivity, which poses a considerable risk to household food security Mark et al. Animal husbandry is an important component of livelihoods and food security in high mountain areas, where animals are a source of food, skin, and wool and are also used for transport. Drying up of watering points due to cryosphere change could affect livestock production and food security. For example, in Wyoming in the USA, the cattle industry depends on glacial melt as a stable source of water during the growing season.

Similarly, diminishing spring flows in the upper reaches of the Querococha watershed in the Cordillera Blanca in Peru, due to recession of the Andean glaciers, have negatively affected pasture health and grass productivity Bury et al. In the Nagqu Prefecture in Tibet Autonomous Region in China, the plant density in meadows has declined, in part due to cryosphere change, and this, together with increasing grazing intensity, has negatively affected yak and sheep herders He and Richards, Table 2. Overall, cryosphere change could have both positive and negative effects on agro pastoral livelihoods depending on the region, and more studies are needed to understand the possibilities.

Tourism is an important source of income and livelihoods in mountain areas and supports a billion-dollar outdoor recreation service Burakowski and Magnusson, but is being negatively affected by lower snowfall and receding glaciers Table 2. Glacier ski resorts established in the s and s in Austria in the European Alps are now facing challenges related to the loss of glacier area thickness, decreased summer skiing season, and stagnation of tourist numbers Falk, Similarly, the Chacaltaya ski resort in Bolivia, once declared the world's highest ski resort, closed recently due to glacier recession.

Similarly, the snowmobile industry is becoming increasingly vulnerable due to a lack of natural snow and skiing is becoming increasingly vulnerable due to dependency on snowmaking Warren and Lemmen, Winter tourism in the United States is also at risk due climate-induced cryospheric change Burakowski and Magnusson, Many communities who depend on fishing as a source of livelihood could be affected by changes in glacier melt Lehodey et al.

For example, fish stocks in the Yanamarey watershed in Peru have declined or completely disappeared due to seasonal reductions in fish habitat in the upper watershed resulting from glacier recession Bury et al. Increased glacier melting and glacier outburst floods in the Kenai river in Alaska have affected fisheries worth USD 70 million annually Milner et al.

Similarly, the warming of rivers and lakes has led to an expansion of invasive species in the Arctic and Continental Great Lakes ecoregions, which has increased commercial fishing but threatened the food security of the indigenous people, who for millennia depended on subsistence fishing Warren and Lemmen, Water for these hydropower reservoirs and plants often originates from glacier and snow melt in high elevation areas, which is likely to be affected by climate change and accelerated glacier melting Cruz et al.

It is difficult to ascertain the exact impact of glacier recession on hydropower as the impacts can vary substantially across a region and even within countries, but different studies predict that it may eventually lead to marked impacts on the seasonality and volume of streamflow.

While melting glaciers may increase water availability for hydropower at the initial stage, an increase in volume from meltwater does not necessarily lead to an increase in production of energy due to spillage effects from hydropower reservoirs Warren and Lemmen, ; Tarroja et al. Reduction in dry season runoff can reduce hydropower production from these plants, as the initial increase in annual flow from glaciers will not compensate for decreased water availability during the dry season Rees et al.

For instance, severe drought in California in the United States resulting from higher temperatures and less snowfall has reduced hydroelectric generation by two-thirds from to Gonzalez et al. Climate change is also expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, which is likely to increase the risk to hydropower plants from flash floods, debris flows, and similar events.

Energy infrastructure such as transmission lines and powerhouses can be destroyed by GLOFs, which are also projected to increase. The energy sector is likely to suffer due to additional risk and loss of potential opportunities due to cryospheric changes. Additional investment will be required to repair, maintain, and adapt hydropower infrastructure due to cryosphere-induced disasters Berman and Schmidt, and increased stress and demand for energy. Ecosystems accustomed to long frozen periods are vulnerable to warmer temperatures.

Cryosphere recession has serious implications for mountain ecosystems because of the effect on micro-climate, hydrology, vegetation, and the carbon balance Fountain et al. Ice loss affects ecosystems directly through the loss of physical habitat and through alterations in thermal conditions, and indirectly by altering light and nutrient supply to primary producers Fountain et al.

Permafrost degradation can change soil moisture content and soil nutrient availability and influence species composition Zhao-ping et al. The potential impacts include fragmentation of animal and plant communities and development of new assemblages, disruption of seasonally synchronized phonological connections among species, and losses in biodiversity with associated changes in ecosystem function Parmesan, , all of which can lead to environmental degradation.

Permafrost recession can also affect slope stability and carbon balance, the release of trace gases, and hydrology Slaymaker and Kelly, Growth conditions for plants and the food chain for animals are directly affected by the thickness and duration of winter snow and its effect on soil water availability, energy input, and thermal conditions for biomass production.

Winter snow cover is of great importance for soil processes Edwards et al. Climate warming could reduce snowpack, which can lead to colder soils and an increase in the frequency of freeze-thaw cycles. Shorter duration of snow cover directly influences the length of the growing season and the phenology of plant production and consumption Gottfried et al. Permafrost degradation exacerbates surface erosion Grannas et al. The disappearance of perennial ice and degradation of permafrost is likely to be accompanied by progressive drying of the surface and a decrease in vegetation cover.

These factors will increase the effects of aeolian wind action and elevate the potential risk of desertification Wang and French, , Upward shifts of species and communities in response to a reduction in the cryosphere and warming climate are already evident in some mountain environments Telwala et al. In the Alps, upward movement of some plant taxa at a rate of 1—4 m per decade has been observed at higher elevations, together with a loss of some taxa that were formerly restricted to these elevations Watson and Haeberli, Furthermore, concerning the riverine biodiversity, species of cold-adapted invertebrates from higher elevations are increasingly being displaced with the expansion of less cryophilic species due to a decrease in glacier runoff to streams, thus changing the hierarchical habitat template Wilhelm et al.

Large carbon pools have accumulated in the wetlands of the world's cold regions, primarily in peatlands. Much of this carbon is sequestered in permafrost Jin et al.

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Permafrost degradation is likely to increase the emission of major greenhouse gases from these layers, leading to further changes in the climate Cheng and Wu, Recession of the cryosphere and resultant changes in vegetation could have a marked impact on the atmospheric exchange of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, which will impact ecosystem functioning Callaghan et al.

As mentioned above, there are considerable deposits of pollutants, especially POPs, stored in glacier ice. These are not only significant for water; melting of Arctic glaciers has released massive amounts of POPs back into the atmosphere, leading to a slight increase in the concentration of a variety of POPs in the Arctic atmosphere over the past 20 years Ma et al. Existing trends and future projections suggest that the cryosphere is likely to shrink substantially in the coming decades at the current global warming rate.

This is expected to change hydrological regimes in glacier-dependent regions and affect river and stream flow, bringing additional risks and uncertainties to food, water, and energy security while exacerbating ecosystem and environmental degradation. Some of these effects are already being observed though their characteristics and magnitude of risks vary considerably across sectors and mountain regions Table 3. Although effects are difficult to quantify and existing studies are limited in scope, it is clear that cryosphere change will have a considerable impact on water availability in the future, both upstream and downstream.

Evidence suggests that the impact will be more severe in arid and semi- arid mountain regions Messerli et al. Since glaciers are still melting with increased precipitation, the impacts are not clearly evident downstream, and the shortage of water availability is likely to emerge only gradually as glaciers increasingly vanish Huss et al.

Furthermore, cryosphere change may bring additional risks to urban water supply, particularly in the Andes and the Himalayas, where the water supply of many big cities depends partly on water from glacier and snowmelt. As urbanization rapidly increases, cryosphere loss will pose management challenges for urban planners and managers in many mountain regions, particularly in the Andes and the Himalayas.

The agriculture sector is already experiencing adverse effects and is likely to be severely affected in the future. The effect of cryosphere shrinkage is likely to be felt beyond the mountain regions along the glaciated river basins.

Changes in water availability due to cryospheric and climatic factors may immediately affect agricultural productivity in upstream areas and downstream areas in the long run. Glacier and snowmelt water contributes considerably to the supply of dry season irrigation water in the river basins of the Indus, Upper-Ganges, Upper-Brahmaputra, and Yangtze, which are the bread basket for billions of people in Asia Siderius et al. Similarly, the tourism sector, particularly winter sports in the Alps and North America, have already been affected negatively by snow reduction.

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In the future the industry is expected to become unviable, causing many to become jobless. Glacier shrinkage can also affect hydropower production in certain regions upon reaching peak water, impacting both energy security and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, thus posing challenges to reducing greenhouse gas emission and achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement Gonzalez et al. Findings of this study indicate that the growing risks for water, food, and energy security, together with increasing risk of disasters, are expected to increase economic, social, and environmental vulnerabilities and to introduce new threats to human security Matthew et al.

The risks emerging from shrinkage of the cryosphere are adding challenges for sustainable development, particularly in achieving certain sustainable development goals SDGs such as ensuring water availability SDG 6 , achieving food security SDG 2 , ensuring access to affordable energy for all SDG 7 , and combating climate change SDG Cryosphere loss is therefore likely to have far-reaching impacts on societies, the economy, the environment, and ecosystems if appropriate measures are not taken urgently.

The adaptation measures taken so far are limited, fragmented, and narrowly focused McDowell et al. A comprehensive risk management plan at different levels will be needed to minimize the adverse impacts. Adaptation to climatic change vulnerability should be integrated into planning and management of socioeconomic development, and appropriate adaptive and mitigative measures to prevent risks and uncertainties from being further compounded urgently need to be addressed.

Cryosphere change may otherwise undermine development efforts aimed at reducing poverty and achieving food, water, and energy security by further triggering social conflicts and human insecurity. Quantification of the economic and social effects of cryosphere change is important in informing public policies and influencing adaptation decisions. This study, however, was not able to quantify the effects, owing to gaps in data, as most of the documents available are qualitative with limited scope and fail to develop a coherent approach.

Further research is needed to quantify, assess, and predict the impacts of cryosphere change on the environment, society, and the economy and its effects on human security, outmigration, and social conflicts. Research is also needed to reduce uncertainties in projected changes in the cryosphere, their potential impacts and their long-term consequences on society, the economy, and the environment. More interdisciplinary studies are required to better understand how the effects of cryosphere change cascade to the socio-economic sectors, increasing risks and human vulnerabilities, and what sustainable adaptation measures can be adopted on the long-run de Jong, While designing public policies and strategies to deal with the increasing uncertainty emerging from cryosphere shrinkage, a collaborative and integrated approach that considers the impact of water stress on agriculture, energy, food, and the ecosystem needs to be considered.

The main points to consider are as follows:. Sustainable water storage will be critical for managing seasonal water variability, as cryosphere change is expected to affect the amount and seasonality of flow in most rivers.

Reservoirs, however, should be managed carefully to avoid adverse effects on the environment and human settlement Di Baldassarre et al. This is particularly important in regions like the HKH where seasonality in water availability is high and water storage is gaining importance. As agriculture is the largest user of water, efforts need to be made to reduce water demand for irrigation by improving irrigation methods, changing cropping patterns and the crop calendar, and introducing other water-efficient methods. Efforts should be made to develop more efficient hydropower turbines and to reduce surface evaporation from reservoirs as well as to enhance energy efficiency and reduce wasteful consumption.

Governments have an important role to play in raising awareness about present and future impacts and vulnerabilities, building adequate capacity to cope with impacts, and in helping to put existing adaptation capacities into action. It is also necessary to improve research capacity to understand, assess, and predict impacts so that appropriate response measures can be developed. Urgent global action is critical to reducing global warming. Addressing the impacts of cryosphere shrinkage will require regional and international cooperation to share experiences and knowledge as well as monitoring risks and facilitating adaption and mitigation measures.

GR: conceptualization, data collection, data analysis, writing, and revising. DM: conceptualization and writing. The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. We extend our sincere thanks to the handling Editor Carmen de Jong and two reviewers Martin John Siegert and Zoe Courville for their constructive and insightful comments which helped to improve the paper. Prakriti Gurung and Sakhie Pant assisted in collecting literature and Sam Inglis in preparing the figure.

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