Ruling But Not Governing: The Military and Political Development in Egypt, Algeria, and Turkey (A Co

Ruling but not governing: The military and political development in Egypt, Algeria , and Turkey Ruling But Not Governing highlights the critical role that the military plays in the stability of the Egyptian, Algerian, . and corruption scandals- most spectacularly in relation to the national oil company, Sonatrach, in early
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Jordan became the country of refuge for millions of Syrians fleeing the Civil War. Turkey has turned to a more authoritarian and repressive government, with , people jailed or fired for anti-government activities. Iraq has seen ISIS defeated in some centers but the threat to stability continues there as Kurds fight for their independence. A week after Dr. The vote is not binding and its legality has been rejected by the federal government of Iraq, but the vote had strong repercussions in the region.

Ruling But Not Governing: Militaries in the Middle East

While the The Arab League called on Iraqis to renounce their differences and open comprehensive dialogue to avoid clashes, Turkish President Erdogan said he is considering all options ranging from military intervention to economic sanctions against Iraq's Kurdish region. Iraqi troops began joint military exercises with Turkey along the border the two countries share. The risk of terrorist activities to achieve this goal is a destabilizing factor in the country.

The Gulf Cooperation Council, established in to effect co-ordination, integration, and interconnection in order to achieve unity among the six member countries: This has compromised the effectiveness of the Gulf Council as a stabilizing factor in the region, and fueled additional tensions. Iran was expected to integrate peacefully into the region following the relaxation of western sanctions in the Nuclear Deal. In contrast, Iran continues to demonstrate and extend its power, consolidating its influence on the region.

Cook reminded the forum. It is a revolutionary power seeking to rewrite the rules of the Middle East to its own benefit. Iran is the most influential actor across the region, Dr. Returning to the Middle East map, Dr. Cook pointed out that Iranian power and influence is beginning to surround Saudi Arabia. After detailing the destabilization affecting every country in the Middle East, Dr. Cook summarized the situation. The Arab Spring demonstrations sought to depose dictatorships and bring about more democratic and modern institutions, end corruption, increase political participation, and bring about greater economic equity, providing opportunities for people to participate in the benefits of a stronger, globalized economy.

But the democratic aspirations were hi-jacked by well-organized radical Islamic organizations who were primed to fill the gaping power vacuum, Dr. Insurgents, frustrated with the lack of change, were recruited into ISIS and other radical organizations. Instead of bringing democracy, repressive counterrevolutionary moves across the region followed.

Middle East destabilization is not a result only of the US withdrawal after the Iraq war, nor it is a consequence of the Iran Nuclear Deal, according to Dr. Rather, it is the result of broader, historical internal issues related to identity. The Middle East is a disruptive amalgam of many identities, religious, cultural, and political identities, leading to instability and violence, he said.

These are factors that the US cannot influence or affect, Dr. The Middle East region has changed. The invasion of Iraq was a destabilizing factor. Russia is back in the Middle East as a power and influence, with Iran as an ally, and Hezbollah as an expeditionary force, he continued.

Reforming Authoritarian Politics: Egypt, Algeria and Turkey - World Affairs Council

Russia is not interested in benefitting the region, but rather in destabilizing Europe. Cook stressed the importance of the US articulating its goals and interests in the Middle East. If the interest is access to oil, then new US oil sources may provide energy independence and obviate this need. If oil is not so important, should the US withdraw from the region? Is Israeli security the main objective? If so, could the US support Israel through other means? Or is it in the US interests to ensure that no one other than the US dominates the region? The Middle East is disintegrating and its countries have no resources to create democratic free markets.

It is a perfect opportunity for strong-arm governments to fill that void. Without a strategy, the US can neither be successful in the region, nor can it withdraw. Furthermore, the larger problem is that world-wide global trade runs on Arab oil. If the US pulled back from the Middle East, would Saudi Arabia seek to become a nuclear power in order to protect themselves from Iran? When Iran signed the Nuclear Deal with the US, they still needed to show the world that they are a revolutionary power with influence in the region.

Among the Middle East countries that could go nuclear, Egypt has no nuclear expertise and its infrastructure is falling down, while Turkey lags behind on technology. Saudi Arabia lacks the technology, but has the wealth to buy nuclear weapons, and Saudis are not likely to trust the Pakistanis, who are the most likely source. Mary Kay Papen NM: Some people suspect that Turkish President Erdogan orchestrated the Turkish uprisings himself to create a reason to increase suppression.

The attempt was carried out by a faction within the Turkish Armed Forces that organized themselves as the Peace at Home Council, which cited an erosion of secularism, elimination of democratic rule, disregard for human rights, and Turkey's loss of credibility in the international arena as reasons for the coup. The group was defeated by loyalist troops. After the coup attempt, Erdogan imprisoned or dismissed anyone suspected of being loyal to his opponents.

Ruling But Not Governing

The effects have been a destabilization of Turkey, a deepening of divisions among the countries sects, and the Islamization of Turkey, not as a theocracy, but with support for Islamic religious values. Turkey has taken in many Syrian refugees, and Italy and Spain have been overwhelmed by refugees.

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Brexit may have been a response to refugee issues. How is the refugee crisis affecting the region? The presence of refugees places a burden on host countries to provide support for them. The Turks harbor 3 million refugees in the provinces close to Syria where the people speak Arabic, not Turkish. In Lebanon, 1 million Syrian refugees comprise a significant percentage of the whole population. But beyond the Middle East, the Syrian conflict also is destabilizing European politics.

In Egypt, opposition groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and others take pseudo-democratic practices such as elections seriously.

The Sweep of Unrest Across the Middle East

As the Brotherhood, in particular, advances its agenda and accumulates power it poses a significant challenge to Egypt's military-founded regime. This is a recurrent theme in Egyptian politics and is precisely what is currently happening in Cairo. Since late when the Brotherhood secured an unprecedented 20 percent of the seats in Egypt's People's Assembly, Egypt's military-dominated leadership has postponed local elections to prevent the organization from making further gains, presided over legislation making it more difficult for the Brotherhood to attain legal status, and arrested large numbers of Brothers, referring them to military tribunals.


  • A Summary of Middle East Destabilization.
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Yet citizens of military-dominated states are not fated to live under authoritarianism forever. Turkey seems to have broken out of a similar pathological pattern of politics and begun a transition to democracy. Yet, since , Turkey's Justice and Development party -- the successor to a variety of Islamist groups -- has systematically clipped the wings of the Turkish military, making it more difficult for the officers to influence the political system.

The Turkish Grand National Assembly now enjoys oversight of parts of the military procurement budget and officers have been removed from civilian education and broadcasting boards. Most significant, Turkey's vaunted National Security Council, which was previously weighted in favor of the officers, now has only a single military member while the Council itself has been downgraded to an advisory body that no longer manages its own budget.

The changes in Turkey are the direct result of the role an external power -- the European Union -- has played in promoting democracy. Through a series of incentives, Brussels, which has often been duplicitous in its relations with Ankara, was able to help create an environment within Turkey conducive to reform. In and , the prospect of EU membership was so popular in Turkey that the officers -- who value their public prestige -- were unable to oppose the civilian leadership's EU-inspired reform drive.

Although it will take time to fully uproot Turkey's national security state, Ankara is firmly on a democratic trajectory. The lesson for U. Despite protestations from some Arab intellectuals and activists, outside powers can be helpful, even decisive, in promoting political change. Yet, the United States is unlikely to advance political change in the Arab world through force or punitive measures.