What Went Wrong with Economics: The flawed assumptions that led economists astray

Editorial Reviews. Review. "This book is required reading for anyone who would like to see a What Went Wrong with Economics: The flawed assumptions that led economists astray - Kindle edition by Michael Reiss. Download it once and.
Table of contents

Four Decades of Development. An Analytical Frame 2. Rural Development Autar Dhesi 3. Crisis in Punjab Agriculture G. Development and Challenges 4. Contract Farming for Agricultural and Rural Development. Jha and Suresh Pal 9. The Status of Agricultural Research in Punjab: Imperative for Rejuvenation Vikram Chadha Agro-Forestry and Agricultural Diversification: Issues and Responses Causes and Remedial Measures G. Such all-else-equal thinking is a common statistical fallacy.

In fact, driver and walker are likely to differ in many ways other than their mode of travel. What seem like natural calculations are stymied by the impracticality, in real life, of changing one variable while leaving all other variables constant. Stars are made, not born—except when they are born: Anders Ericsson, who believes that experts arise from practice rather than innate talent. It begins with the startling observation that elite soccer players in Europe are much more likely to be born in the first three months of the year. Since youth soccer leagues are organized into age groups with a cutoff birth date of December 31, coaches naturally favor the older kids within each age group, who have had more playing time.

So far, so good. But this leads to an eye-catching piece of wisdom: The fact that so many World Cup players have early birthdays, the authors write,. Perhaps readers are not meant to take these statements seriously. But when we do, we find that they violate some basic statistical concepts. Despite its implied statistical significance, the size of the birthday effect is very small. The authors acknowledge as much three years later when they revisit the subject in SuperFreakonomics.

If these factors are such crucial determinants of future stardom, what does this say about their theory that a star is made, not born? Practice may indeed be a more important factor than innate talent, but in opting for cute flourishes like these, the authors venture so far from the original studies that they lose the plot. Making the majors and hitting a curveball: In the same discussion in SuperFreakonomics, Levitt and Dubner write:. In such a competitive field, the difference in batting averages between a kid who makes the majors and one who narrowly misses out is likely to be a matter of hundredths or even thousandths of a percent.

What Went Wrong with Economics: The Flawed Assumptions That Led Economists Astray

Such errors could easily be avoided. The straw man they employ—a hypothetical algorithm boasting percent accuracy—would indeed, if it exists, wrongfully accuse half a million people out of the 50 million adults in the United Kingdom. So the conventional wisdom that percent accuracy is sufficient for terrorist prediction is folly, as has been pointed out by others such as security expert Bruce Schneier. The casual computation keeps under wraps the rate at which it fails at catching terrorists: The maligned straw-man algorithm, by contrast, would have correctly identified of terrorists.

This unavoidable tradeoff between false positive and false negative errors is a well-known property of all statistical-prediction applications. Circling back to check all the factors involved in the problem might have helped the authors avoid this mistake. Rendering research conducted by others is much more challenging than explaining your own work, especially if the topic lies outside your domain of expertise. The climate-change chapter in SuperFreakonomics is a case in point. In it, Levitt and Dubner throw their weight behind geoengineering, a climate-remediation concept championed at the time by Nathan Myhrvold, a billionaire and former chief technology officer of Microsoft.

Viewing alternative points of view as useful rather than threatening can help take the sting out of critiques.

Freakonomics: What Went Wrong? | American Scientist

How could an experienced journalist and a widely respected researcher slip up in so many ways? Some possible answers to this question offer insights for the would-be pop-statistics writer. An ideal process for the popularization of statistical analysis includes many steps and is far from linear. One example of what such a process might look like is shown above.

The popularizer carefully interviews primary researchers, or writes thoughtfully about his or her own work; seeks out and questions authoritative secondary sources; circles back to clarify points with the original researchers; ponders the evidence; crafts a story; works both alone and with a trustworthy editor to revise and shape the piece; and only then delivers it to the public.

The process changes dynamically in response to discoveries the popularizer makes, new questions he or she uncovers, and complications that pop up along the way. Leave friendship at the door: Paperback , pages. To see what your friends thought of this book, please sign up. To ask other readers questions about What Went Wrong with Economics , please sign up.

Be the first to ask a question about What Went Wrong with Economics. Lists with This Book. This book is not yet featured on Listopia. Oct 25, Quentin Stewart rated it it was amazing. Michael Reiss has taken a difficult subject and made it understandable to the average reader. As I recall my Econ classes from college they were boring and any information tested was quickly forgotten because of the aura that surrounded the "dismal science" and the thought that only the truly gifted were able to grasp the truth in all of those graphs.

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That point of view is interesting when you stop and consider that Economics affects our daily lives so much. Reiss brings the "dismal science" dow Michael Reiss has taken a difficult subject and made it understandable to the average reader. Reiss brings the "dismal science" down to the point that the average person can understand what is going on in the economies of the world. I found it fascinating that most of the people supposedly in control of the economic foundation of the country are not trained economists. They operate under the old economic theories that may have been true before the growth of the modern banking system and thus in many cases may be like me in college and hoping that things will get better without any idea how the economy got to where it is at and no idea how to get things turned around.

Maybe too much government in the economy is the problem. Reiss does and excellent job in a very readable format to get across his notions of how our economy got to this point and how things should be changed to make things better. You do not have to agree with everything that is written in the book, but it may give you and better understanding how things work.

It is not a "dry" economics text, but very readable and informative book. I found this to be the first economics book that I enjoyed reading. I would recommend it to anyone who is interested in trying to understand the economic system and how we have gotten to this point. Most will not agree with his conclusions but hopefully it will get everyone to thinking about the situation. Sep 25, Francine rated it really liked it Shelves: Being someone with an interest in the world's economy but not into an in-depth analysis finding it far to dry to read about , I was quite intrigued by this book.

I was happy to find a straight forward, informative, yet easy-to-read book written at a layman's level of understanding that would be me! Reiss has made it interesting, explaining past and presen Being someone with an interest in the world's economy but not into an in-depth analysis finding it far to dry to read about , I was quite intrigued by this book.

Why Economists Are WRONG About The Stock Market

Reiss has made it interesting, explaining past and present and providing some of his ideas for solutions for the future. Maybe all of the points aren't perfectly backed-up but perfection is a myth as the world's economic state is proving today.

Rural Development in Punjab

If you are looking for a book that will provide some insight without putting you to sleep, this is the one for you. Aug 26, Louis rated it liked it Shelves: This was a pretty good book. I enjoyed what I was able to learn. He made it very clear on how to understand economics. I am still in college and it made me want to take some economic classes.


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It was a thought provoking book as well.